Covid-19: How the UK vaccine rollout delivered success, so far

Baraniuk, Chris

doi:10.1136/bmj.n421

Cited by 81 publications

(68 citation statements)

References 1 publication

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“…With additional knowledge of the relative strength and duration of one-dose vaccinal immunity and corresponding clinically informed policies related to dosing regimes, pessimistic scenarios may be avoided. For context, at the time of writing, the UK, for example, has been particularly successful in rolling out vaccination to a large population with a wide spacing between doses ( 49 ). Our model illustrates that, ultimately, the long-term impacts of this strategy, especially in terms of transmission and immune escape, will depend on the duration and strength of one-dose vaccinal immunity.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

Saad-Roy

Morris

Metcalf

et al. 2021

Science

220

224

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In the face of vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to SARS-CoV-2. Two critical issues arise: how will the timing of delivery of the second dose affect both infection dynamics and prospects for the evolution of viral immune escape via a build-up of partially immune individuals. Both hinge on the robustness of the immune response elicited by a single dose, compared to natural and two-dose immunity. Building on an existing immuno-epidemiological model, we find that in the short-term, focusing on one dose generally decreases infections, but longer-term outcomes depend on this relative immune robustness. We then explore three scenarios of selection and find that a one-dose policy may increase the potential for antigenic evolution under certain conditions of partial population immunity. We highlight the critical need to test viral loads and quantify immune responses after one vaccine dose, and to ramp up vaccination efforts throughout the world.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

Saad-Roy

Morris

Metcalf

et al. 2021

Science

220

224

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“…The 'first dose first' approach favoured by the United Kingdom has been frequently contrasted with the approach of many countries in the European Union. [18][19][20] This is reflected in our dataset: Germany, for example, has administered a first dose to a much smaller share of the population (8.1%) but has fully vaccinated a higher share than the UK (3.6%). While the share of the population that received a first dose in Germany was much lower than in the UK, the share who received a second dose is actually higher.…”

Section: Different Approaches and Prioritization Strategies Between Cmentioning

confidence: 94%

A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations

Mathieu

Ritchie

Ortiz-Ospina

et al. 2021

Preprint

538

630

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An effective rollout of vaccinations against COVID-19 offers the most promising prospect of bringing the pandemic to an end. We present the Our World in Data COVID-19 vaccination dataset, a global public dataset that tracks the scale and rate of the vaccine rollout across the world. This dataset is updated regularly, and includes data on the total number of vaccinations administered; first and second doses administered; daily vaccination rates; and population-adjusted coverage for all countries for which data is available (138 countries as of 17 March 2021). It will be maintained as the global vaccination campaign continues to progress. This resource aids policymakers and researchers in understanding the rate of current and potential vaccine rollout; the interactions with non-vaccination policy responses; the potential impact of vaccinations on pandemic outcomes such as transmission, morbidity, and mortality; and global inequalities in vaccine access.

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“…However, production numbers do not yet provide sufficient supply for an immediate full rollout. In today’s real-world situation, vaccines are rationed [ 25 ] initially also for smaller hospitals. The model predicts for the two rollout schemes that the difference in expected open hospital capacity increases for greater resource scarcity, Figure 7 and Table 7 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The weighing in of factors such as hierarchical importance [ 22 , 23 ] or student status [ 24 ] can lead to differences in the rollout scheme and prioritization among hospital staff. The rollout in the United Kingdom so far has been successful [ 25 ]. Subgroups of a population such as those economically worse off [ 26 ] or minorities [ 27 ] can require special attention, however.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool

et al. 2021

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Motive. The Covid-19 pandemic has led to the novel situation that hospitals must prioritize staff for a vaccine rollout while there is acute shortage of the vaccine. In spite of the availability of guidelines from state agencies, there is partial confusion about what an optimal rollout plan is. This study investigates effects in a hospital model under different rollout schemes. Methods. A simulation model is implemented in VBA, and is studied for parameter variation in a predefined hospital setting. The implemented code is available as open access supplement. Main results. A rollout scheme assigning vaccine doses to staff primarily by staff’s pathogen exposure maximizes the predicted open hospital capacity when compared to a rollout based on a purely hierarchical prioritization. The effect increases under resource scarcity and greater disease activity. Nursing staff benefits most from an exposure focused rollout. Conclusions. The model employs SARS-CoV-2 parameters; nonetheless, effects observable in the model are transferable to other infectious diseases. Necessary future prioritization plans need to consider pathogen characteristics and social factors.

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Covid-19: How the UK vaccine rollout delivered success, so far

Cited by 81 publications

References 1 publication

Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

A global database of COVID-19 vaccinations

Maximization of Open Hospital Capacity under Shortage of SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines—An Open Access, Stochastic Simulation Tool

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