COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Toor, Jaspreet; Li, Xiang; Jit, Mark; Trotter, L. Caroline; Echeverría-Londoño, Susy; Hartner, Anna-Maria; Roth, Jeremy; Portnoy, Allison; Abbas, Kaja; Ferguson, M. Neil; Gaythorpe, Katy A. M.

doi:10.1016/j.vaccine.2022.05.074

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The disruptions caused by COVID-19 have been studied for several health conditions (HIV infection (n=10), 2 5 12 16 20 24 41–43 52 tuberculosis (TB) (n=5), 2 27 49 50 54 and malaria (n=3)), 2 6 57 vaccine preventable (n=2) 39 44 and other infectious diseases (n=12), 11 15 18 19 21 26 29 47 48 51 53 56 cancers (n=11), 10 13 17 25 28 30 32 34 40 45 46 cardiovascular disease (n=2), 33 35 maternal and child health (n=2) 4 23 and many other disease conditions (n=7) 2 4 20 22 23 30 32 36 37 39 44 56 ( table 1 and online supplemental appendix table 5 ). Twelve (23.1%) studies modelled multiple health conditions 2 4 20 22 23 30 32 36 37 39 44 56 while remaining focused on specific health condition or area.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“… 11 18 19 48 53 56 One article reported a humanistic outcome (additional job creation) 35 and one article 28 reported economic outcome (eg, Maximise cost-effectiveness). One study 39 reported improved outcomes in health services such as fully vaccinated people. 39 Detailed description on the effects of mitigation strategies is provided in table 2 and online supplemental appendix table 8 .…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One study 39 reported improved outcomes in health services such as fully vaccinated people. 39 Detailed description on the effects of mitigation strategies is provided in table 2 and online supplemental appendix table 8 . Governments (n=16), policy makers (n=9), the health system (n=0.8), professional bodies (n=2), communities (n=1) and others (n=1) are among the audiences suggested by study authors for their findings ( online supplemental appendix table 8 ).…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

Veettil,

Schwerer,

Kategeaw

et al. 2023

BMJ Open

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BackgroundStudies assessing the indirect impact of COVID-19 using mathematical models have increased in recent years. This scoping review aims to identify modelling studies assessing the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services caused by COVID-19 and to summarise the characteristics of disruption and the models used to assess the disruptions.MethodsEligible studies were included if they used any models to assess the impact of COVID-19 disruptions on any health services. Articles published from January 2020 to December 2022 were identified from PubMed, Embase and CINAHL, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, modelling and healthcare disruptions. Two reviewers independently extracted the data in four domains. A descriptive analysis of the included studies was performed under the format of a narrative report.ResultsThis scoping review has identified a total of 52 modelling studies that employed several models (n=116) to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services. The majority of the models were simulation models (n=86; 74.1%). Studies covered a wide range of health conditions from infectious diseases to non-communicable diseases. COVID-19 has been reported to disrupt supply of health services, demand for health services and social change affecting factors that influence health. The most common outcomes reported in the studies were clinical outcomes such as mortality and morbidity. Twenty-five studies modelled various mitigation strategies; maintaining critical services by ensuring resources and access to services are found to be a priority for reducing the overall impact.ConclusionA number of models were used to assess the potential impact of disruptions to essential health services on various outcomes. There is a need for collaboration among stakeholders to enhance the usefulness of any modelling. Future studies should consider disparity issues for more comprehensive findings that could ultimately facilitate policy decision-making to maximise benefits to all.

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Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

Veettil,

Schwerer,

Kategeaw

et al. 2023

BMJ Open

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Global disease surveillance suggests that coverage declines and/ or campaign postponements and delays are translating into an increase in worldwide measles outbreaks [40] . Modelling has shown that drops in RI coverage can result in increased VPD deaths [41] – leveraging such methods combined with inputting modelled pandemic coverage declines could help more precisely estimate potential increases in VPDs (though likely would also require sub-national datapoints). This could help proactively target campaigns where outbreaks could be most likely to occur.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage shows disruption and stagnation during the first two-years of the COVID-19 pandemic with tentative recovery in 2022

Evans,

Keiser,

Kaiser

et al. 2023

Vaccine: X

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“…Global disease surveillance suggests that this – along with other factors including delays to measles campaign implementation, potentially also pandemic related – are translating into an increase in worldwide measles outbreaks [25]. Recent modelling has modelled the link between declines in immunisation coverage and vaccine-preventable disease outbreaks based on scenarios of uniform declines in coverage [26] - such methods could be enhanced to build on our country-specific modelled declines in coverage to more precisely estimate potential increases in vaccine-preventable diseases. This could help proactively target campaigns where outbreaks would be most likely to occur, if real time coverage declines are identified.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Time series analysis of routine immunisation coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 shows continued global decline and increases in Zero Dose children

Evans

Keiser

Kaiser

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Whilst it is now widely recognised that routine immunisation (RI) was disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 compared to previous immunisation performance, the extent of continued interruptions in 2021 and/or rebounds to previous trends remains unclear, with sporadic surveys reporting signs of immunisation system recovery at the end of 2020. We modelled country-specific RI trends using validated estimates of national coverage from the World Health Organisation and United Nation Children's Fund for over 160 countries, to project expected diphtheria, tetanus, and pertussis-containing vaccine first-dose (DTP1), third-dose (DTP3) and measles-containing vaccine first-dose (MCV1) coverage for 2021 based on pre-pandemic trends (from 2000-2019). We estimated a 3.6% (95%CI: [2.6%; 4.6%]) decline in global DTP3 coverage in 2021 compared to 2000-2019 trends, from an expected 90.1% to a reported 86.5% across 164 reporting countries, and similar results for DTP1 (2.8% decline; 95%CI: [2.0%; 3.6%]), and for MCV1 (3.8% decline; 95%CI: [4.8%; 2.7%]). 86.5% global coverage in 2021 represents a further decrease from that reported in 2020 and 2019, and translates to a 16-year setback in RI coverage, i.e., 2005 levels. Hypothesised and early signals of rebounds to pre-pandemic coverage were not seen in most countries. The Americas, Africa, and Asia were the most impacted regions, with low- and middle-income countries the most affected income groups. The number of Zero Dose children also continued to increase in 2021. DTP1 coverage declined worldwide from an expected 93.7% to a reported 90.9% (2.8% decline; 95%CI: [2.0%; 3.6%]) which translates into an additional 3.4 million Zero Dose children on top of an expected 11.0 million (30.9% increase) at the global level. We hope this work will provide an objective baseline to inform future interventions and prioritisation aiming to facilitate rebounds in coverage to previous levels and catch-up of growing populations of under- and un-immunised children.

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COVID-19 impact on routine immunisations for vaccine-preventable diseases: Projecting the effect of different routes to recovery

Cited by 11 publications

References 28 publications

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

Scoping review of modelling studies assessing the impact of disruptions to essential health services during COVID-19

Analysis of global routine immunisation coverage shows disruption and stagnation during the first two-years of the COVID-19 pandemic with tentative recovery in 2022

Time series analysis of routine immunisation coverage during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 shows continued global decline and increases in Zero Dose children

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