COVID-19 in Ontario Long-term Care Facilities Project, a Manually Curated and Validated Database

Kaur, Mahakprit; Bragazzi, Nicola Luigi; Heffernan, Jane M.; Tsasis, Peter; Wu, Jianhong; Kong, Jude Dzevela

doi:10.2139/ssrn.3981025

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…People with disabilities who require assistance with activities of daily living (ADLs) may live in a long-term care facility or independently with some form of caregiving support [17,18]. Although extensive epidemiological and modeling studies have identified risk factors and mitigation strategies for COVID-19 outbreaks in long-term care facilities [19][20][21][22][23][24][25], there have not been similar studies of independently-housed disabled people and their caregivers. Caregivers are often indispensable for the health and independence of disabled people because they assist with activities such as bathing, dressing, and using the bathroom.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Networks of necessity: Simulating COVID-19 mitigation strategies for disabled people and their caregivers

et al. 2022

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A major strategy to prevent the spread of COVID-19 is the limiting of in-person contacts. However, limiting contacts is impractical or impossible for the many disabled people who do not live in care facilities but still require caregivers to assist them with activities of daily living. We seek to determine which interventions can best prevent infections of disabled people and their caregivers. To accomplish this, we simulate COVID-19 transmission with a compartmental model that includes susceptible, exposed, asymptomatic, symptomatically ill, hospitalized, and removed/recovered individuals. The networks on which we simulate disease spread incorporate heterogeneity in the risk levels of different types of interactions, time-dependent lockdown and reopening measures, and interaction distributions for four different groups (caregivers, disabled people, essential workers, and the general population). Of these groups, we find that the probability of becoming infected is largest for caregivers and second largest for disabled people. Consistent with this finding, our analysis of network structure illustrates that caregivers have the largest modal eigenvector centrality of the four groups. We find that two interventions—contact-limiting by all groups and mask-wearing by disabled people and caregivers—most reduce the number of infections in disabled and caregiver populations. We also test which group of people spreads COVID-19 most readily by seeding infections in a subset of each group and comparing the total number of infections as the disease spreads. We find that caregivers are the most potent spreaders of COVID-19, particularly to other caregivers and to disabled people. We test where to use limited infection-blocking vaccine doses most effectively and find that (1) vaccinating caregivers better protects disabled people from infection than vaccinating the general population or essential workers and that (2) vaccinating caregivers protects disabled people from infection about as effectively as vaccinating disabled people themselves. Our results highlight the potential effectiveness of mask-wearing, contact-limiting throughout society, and strategic vaccination for limiting the exposure of disabled people and their caregivers to COVID-19.

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