COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region: an urgent call for reliable, disaggregated and openly shared data

Wehbe, Sarah; Fahme, Sasha Abdallah; Rizk, Anthony; Mumtaz, Ghina R.; DeJong, Jocelyn; Sibai, Abla Mehio

doi:10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005175

Cited by 24 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 7 publications

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“…While OLE was demonstrated to be robust to limited data [ 18 , 24 ], as with any methods, here the predictions of the method are only as good as the data used, and the diligence and quality of COVID-19 testing and reporting within different countries is likely to affect our results. There are considerable differences among countries and regions in the COVID-19 testing rates, surveillance effort, indicators, reporting systems and criteria, and data quality [ 30 ]. The method also does not account for individual differences among characteristics among records in quality or reliability [ 31 ].…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…There are considerable differences among countries and regions in the COVID-19 testing rates, surveillance effort, indicators, reporting systems and criteria, and data quality [30]. The method also does not account for individual differences among characteristics among records in quality or reliability [31]. While one solution for this issue would be to apply weighted resampling method [32], which allows OLE to effectively incorporate individual reliability of records, detailed analysis of official covid PLOS PATHOGENS records necessary to develop such reliability scoring is beyond the scope of this study.…”

Section: Gðvþiþgðjþmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dating first cases of COVID-19

2021

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Questions persist as to the origin of the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidence is building that its origin as a zoonotic spillover occurred prior to the officially accepted timing of early December, 2019. Here we provide novel methods to date the origin of COVID-19 cases. We show that six countries had exceptionally early cases, unlikely to represent part of their main case series. The model suggests a likely timing of the first case of COVID-19 in China as November 17 (95% CI October 4). Origination dates are discussed for the first five countries outside China and each continent. Results infer that SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in early October to mid-November, and by January, had spread globally. This suggests an earlier and more rapid timeline of spread. Our study provides new approaches for estimating dates of the arrival of infectious diseases based on small samples that can be applied to many epidemiological situations.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Gðvþiþgðjþmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dating first cases of COVID-19

2021

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“…Non manca chi sostiene che la sottostima dei dati provenienti dal continente africano sia legata all'insufficiente screening della popolazione, sintomatica e non. Gli epidemiologi lamentano la povertà di dati provenienti da Africa settentrionale e Africa centrorientale e la loro bassa qualità legata alla mancata stratificazione per caratteristiche demografiche e di comorbilità [6]. L'irrequietezza politica di queste aree e la presenza di un gran numero di rifugiati e profughi complica la situazione.…”

Section: Il 2020unclassified

La pandemia africana: passato, presente e futuro

Zavattero

2021

QACP

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“…Comprehensive surveillance data, and transparency in the communication with the population are necessary prerequisite for controlling the pandemic in a timely and focused manner and for adjusting healthcare services in a constantly changing environment of dynamic healthcare needs 6 – 8 . The COVID-19 pandemic has already revealed the structural weaknesses of public health surveillance systems in both high and low-income countries and the difficulty in producing complete and comparable data within and among countries 9 – 11 . It is therefore essential, when comparing data from different countries, to use only appropriate metrics that rely on complete data collected in a similar way, assuring comparability 12 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in space and over time in Europe, using numbers of deaths, crude rates and adjusted mortality trend ratios

Gallo

Chiodini

Bruzzese

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Comparison of COVID-19 trends in space and over time is essential to monitor the pandemic and to indirectly evaluate non-pharmacological policies aimed at reducing the burden of disease. Given the specific age- and sex- distribution of COVID-19 mortality, the underlying sex- and age-distribution of populations need to be accounted for. The aim of this paper is to present a method for monitoring trends of COVID-19 using adjusted mortality trend ratios (AMTRs). Age- and sex-mortality distribution of a reference European population (N = 14,086) was used to calculate age- and sex-specific mortality rates. These were applied to each country to calculate the expected deaths. Adjusted Mortality Trend Ratios (AMTRs) with 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) were calculated for selected European countries on a daily basis from 17th March 2020 to 29th April 2021 by dividing observed cumulative mortality, by expected mortality, times the crude mortality of the reference population. These estimated the sex- and age-adjusted mortality for COVID-19 per million population in each country. United Kingdom experienced the highest number of COVID-19 related death in Europe. Crude mortality rates were highest Hungary, Czech Republic, and Luxembourg. Accounting for the age-and sex-distribution of the underlying populations with AMTRs for each European country, four different patterns were identified: countries which experienced a two-wave pandemic, countries with almost undetectable first wave, but with either a fast or a slow increase of mortality during the second wave; countries with consistently low rates throughout the period. AMTRs were highest in Eastern European countries (Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland). Our methods allow a fair comparison of mortality in space and over time. These might be of use to indirectly estimating the efficacy of non-pharmacological health policies. The authors urge the World Health Organisation, given the absence of age and sex-specific mortality data for direct standardisation, to adopt this method to estimate the comparative mortality from COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.

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COVID-19 in the Middle East and North Africa region: an urgent call for reliable, disaggregated and openly shared data

Cited by 24 publications

References 7 publications

Dating first cases of COVID-19

Dating first cases of COVID-19

La pandemia africana: passato, presente e futuro

Comparing the COVID-19 pandemic in space and over time in Europe, using numbers of deaths, crude rates and adjusted mortality trend ratios

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