COVID-19 mortality prediction: A case study for İstanbul

Abstract

In this paper, we use SEIR equations to make predictions for the number of mortality due to COVID-19 in İstanbul. Using excess mortality method, we find the number of mortality for the previous three waves in 2020 and 2021. We show that the predictions of our model is consistent with number of moralities for each wave. Furthermore, we predict the number of mortality for the second wave of 2021. We also extend our analysis for Germany, Italy and Turkey to compare the basic reproduction number R 0 for Istanbul. Finally, we calculate the number of infected people in Istanbul for herd immunity.

Assessment of COVID-19 Numbers by Using Fisher Transform Indicator

“…Although R 0 parameter is used frequently, it is model dependent and cannot give information about the mortality rate. Yilmaz et al [16] have used excess mortality rate to understand and predict the peaks of death numbers. They found that R 0 value tend to decrease by time as a result of precautions.…”