COVID-19 pandemic and its recovery time of patients in India: A pilot study

Barman, Manash Pratim; Rahman, Tousifur; Bora, Krishnarjun; Borgohain, Chandan

doi:10.1016/j.dsx.2020.07.004

Cited by 95 publications

(78 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…The average age spread between the pre-outbreak and the peak is 3-4 years. The lag of 4-5 weeks between the peaks is consistent with the range of 2-7 weeks (median of 25 days) reported by (Barman, 2020) for COVID-19 patient recovery or death.…”

Section: Average Age At Covid-19 Deathsupporting

confidence: 86%

COVID-19 Outbreaks and Age Mortality Patterns

Shapiro¹

2020

Preprint

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As of the Fall of 2020, many countries are still fighting the COVID-19 pandemic. After the painful first massive wave in the Spring, more and more of them are facing the new outbreaks of varying impact. Understanding the mortality pattern associated with such subsequent outbreaks would help governments better prepare and save lives. These secondary outbreaks are still quite new to the scientists as the data have not been sufficient to identify robust trends. By now, US is dealing with the second outbreak of large magnitude and statistically significant analyses are finally possible. We have analyzed the weekly mortality death counts for various ages in US for the entire COVID-19 pandemic duration. Three somewhat related features involving age at death have been extracted: a) COVID-19 average age at death, b) fraction of deaths at ages 65+, and c) slope of age gradient regression line on the logarithmic scale. It turns out that during the outbreak the mortality age gradient is undergoing the following changes: a) average age at death at the peak is 4-5 years higher than at the lower point; b) fraction of deaths of 65+ is by approximately 10% higher, and c) the higher slope of the age gradient translates into an extra death risk of 5.8% every year. In other words, risks, to which an elderly population is exposed during all phases of the pandemic, rise sharply during and right after the outbreak peaks.

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Section: Average Age At Covid-19 Deathsupporting

confidence: 86%

COVID-19 Outbreaks and Age Mortality Patterns

Shapiro¹

2020

Preprint

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“…In early studies from India, the mean length of hospital stay was seen to be as long as 17 days, IQR 15 to 20 days (where LOS was influenced significantly only by the presence of SARI or a travel history) 13 to 24 days (16-34 days at 95% CI; the length of hospital stay in this study was influenced only by gender and age). 14 A study done in Belgium reported that the length of stay ranged from 3 to 10.4 days and it significantly increased with the age of the patient. 15 A study which was done among 538 confirmed patients between January and March 2020 in China found that the median hospital stay was 19 days with interquartile range of 14 to 23 days and it was influenced by age, serious illness, and density of health care workers.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study of Factors Affecting the Length of Hospital Stay of COVID-19 Patients by Cox-Proportional Hazard Model in a South Indian Tertiary Care Hospital

Thiruvengadam

Marappa

Ramanujam³

2021

J Prim Care Community Health

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Background: The objective of the study was to identify the factors that alter the length of hospital stay of COVID-19 patients so we have an estimate of the duration of hospitalization of patients. To achieve this, we used a time to event analysis to arrive at factors that could alter the length of hospital stay, aiding in planning additional beds for any future rise in cases. Methods: Information about COVID-19 patients was collected between June and August 2020. The response variable was the time from admission to discharge of patients. Cox proportional hazard model was used to identify the factors that were associated with the length of hospital stay. Results: A total of 730 COVID-19 patients were included, of which 675 (92.5%) recovered and 55 (7.5%) were considered to be right-censored, that is, the patient died or was discharged against medical advice. The median length of hospital stay of COVID-19 patients who were hospitalized was found to be 7 days by the Kaplan Meier curve. The covariates that prolonged the length of hospital stay were found to be abnormalities in oxygen saturation (HR = 0.446, P < .001), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (HR = 0.742, P = .003), levels of D-dimer (HR = 0.60, P = .002), lactate dehydrogenase (HR = 0.717, P = .002), and ferritin (HR = 0.763, P = .037). Also, patients who had more than 2 chronic diseases had a significantly longer length of stay (HR = 0.586, P = .008) compared to those with no comorbidities. Conclusion: Factors that are associated with prolonged length of hospital stay of patients need to be considered in planning bed strength on a contingency basis.

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“…The study also concluded that the average recovery duration of COVID-19 patients in India had been found 25 days, with a 95% confidence interval of 16 days–34 days. 9 The average duration of COVID-19 is generally computed from hospital-based studies rather than from the community. Therefore, the present study has been planned to determine the average duration of COVID-19 patients from the community.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Knowledge of the average duration of recovery time helps the Government to prepare effective measures for the healthcare system. 9 Determining the average duration of recovery time from COVID-19 in each region is expected to help the health professionals for better treatment and arrangement of logistics. Hence, an effort has been made to estimate the recovery duration of India's COVID-19 patients for each state which intern expected to establish a social and economic initiative to help COVID-19 patients during the disease period and thereafter.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 pandemic and its average recovery time in Indian states

George¹,

Tyagi²,

Prasad³

2021

Clinical Epidemiology and Global Health

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Background Many studies have been carried out in modelling COVID-19 pandemic. However, region-wise average duration of recovery from COVID-19 has not been attempted; hence, an effort has been made to estimate state-wise recovery duration of India's COVID-19 patients. Determining the recovery time in each region is intended to assist healthcare professionals in providing better care and planning of logistics. Methods This study used database provided by Kaggle, which takes data from the Ministry of Health & Family Welfare. The simple Linear Regression model between incidence, prevalence, and duration was used to assess the duration of COVID-19 disease in various Indian states. Results The fitted model suits ideal for most of the states, except for some union territories and northeastern states. The average time to recover from disease was ranging from 5 to 36 days in Indian states/union territories except for Madhya Pradesh. Tamil Nadu has an average recovery time of 7 days with an value of 0.96, followed by Odisha, Karnataka, West Bengal, Kerala and Chhattisgarh and the average recovery duration was estimated as 7, 13, 17, 11, 14 and 12 days respectively. Conclusion The average recovery from COVID-19 was ten or less days in twenty percentage of states, whereas in forty-four percentage of states/union territories had an average recovery duration between ten to twenty days. However, around twentyfour percentage of states/union territory recovered between twenty to thirty days. In the rest of Indian states/union territories, the average duration of recovery was more than thirty days.

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COVID-19 pandemic and its recovery time of patients in India: A pilot study

Cited by 95 publications

References 10 publications

COVID-19 Outbreaks and Age Mortality Patterns

COVID-19 Outbreaks and Age Mortality Patterns

A Study of Factors Affecting the Length of Hospital Stay of COVID-19 Patients by Cox-Proportional Hazard Model in a South Indian Tertiary Care Hospital

COVID-19 pandemic and its average recovery time in Indian states

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