COVID-19 Pandemic: ARIMA and Regression Model based Worldwide Death Cases Predictions

Abstract

Covid-19 has now taken a frightening form. As the day passes, it is becoming more and more widespread and now it has become an epidemic. The death rate, which was earlier in the hundreds, changed to thousands and then progressed to millions respectively. If the same situation persists over time, the day is not far when the humanity of all the countries on the globe will be endangered and we yearn for breath. From January 2020 till now, many scientists, researchers and doctors are also trying to solve this complex problem so that proper arrangements can be made by the governments in the hospitals and the death rate can be reduced. The presented research article shows the estimated mortality rate by the ARIMA model and the Regression model. This dataset has been collected precisely from DataHub-Novel Coronavirus 2019-Dataset from 22 nd January to 29 th June 2020. In order to show the current mortality rate of the entire subject, the correlation coe cients of attributes (MAE, MSE, RMSE and MAPE) were used, where the average absolute percentage error validated the model by 99.09%. The ARIMA model is used to generate auto_arima SARIMAX results, auto_arima residual plots, ARIMA model results, and corresponding prediction plots on the training data set. These data indicate a continuous decline in death cases. By applying a regression model, the coe cients generated by the regression model are estimated, and the actual death cases and expected death cases are compared and analyzed. It is found that the predicted mortality rate has decreased after May 2, 2020. It will learn help the government and doctors prepare for the next plans. Based on short-period predictions these methods can use forecast for longperiod.

Network Autoregressive Model for the Prediction of COVID-19 Considering the Disease Interaction in Neighboring Countries

“…Using the same ARIMA model, Malki et al further predicted the second rebound of this disease; they also projected the end of the pandemic based on the ARIMA model [17]. Chaurasia et al additionally used ARIMA and a regression model to forecast mortality rates in this respect [18]. Furthermore, Kumar et al employed timeseries methods to analyze the COVID-19 spreading profile in ten affected countries [19].…”