Covid-19: Risk of second wave is very real, say researchers

Wise, Jacqui

doi:10.1136/bmj.m2294

Cited by 84 publications

(83 citation statements)

References 2 publications

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“…The risk of a resurgence of COVID-19 is high as only 6.5% of the population in the UK was reported to have antibodies to the virus in July 2020, far from reaching herd immunity. 15 Consequently, physicians and psychiatrists caring for people with intellectual disability face the dilemma of identifying who is at higher risk from an already highly vulnerable population in order to take necessary measures to protect them from the infection and reduce mortality. Blanket isolation measures for a person with an intellectual disability can have an impact on their mental health given their routines and daily activities tend to be well structured and predictable.…”

Section: Mental Health Problems and Intellectual Disabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 deaths in people with intellectual disability in the UK and Ireland: descriptive study

et al. 2020

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Background Rapid spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has affected people with intellectual disability disproportionately. Existing data does not provide enough information to understand factors associated with increased deaths in those with intellectual disability. Establishing who is at high risk is important in developing prevention strategies, given risk factors or comorbidities in people with intellectual disability may be different to those in the general population. Aims To identify comorbidities, demographic and clinical factors of those individuals with intellectual disability who have died from COVID-19. Method An observational descriptive case series looking at deaths because of COVID-19 in people with intellectual disability was conducted. Along with established risk factors observed in the general population, possible specific risk factors and comorbidities in people with intellectual disability for deaths related to COVID-19 were examined. Comparisons between mild and moderate-to-profound intellectual disability subcohorts were undertaken. Results Data on 66 deaths in individuals with intellectual disability were analysed. This group was younger (mean age 64 years) compared with the age of death in the general population because of COVID-19. High rates of moderate-to-profound intellectual disability (n = 43), epilepsy (n = 29), mental illness (n = 29), dysphagia (n = 23), Down syndrome (n = 20) and dementia (n = 15) were observed. Conclusions This is the first study exploring associations between possible risk factors and comorbidities found in COVID-19 deaths in people with intellectual disability. Our data provides insight into possible factors for deaths in people with intellectual disability. Some of the factors varied between the mild and moderate-to-profound intellectual disability groups. This highlights an urgent need for further systemic inquiry and study of the possible cumulative impact of these factors and comorbidities given the possibility of COVID-19 resurgence.

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Section: Mental Health Problems and Intellectual Disabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 deaths in people with intellectual disability in the UK and Ireland: descriptive study

et al. 2020

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“…A modelling study found that lockdown measures might have averted 3.1 million deaths from covid-19 across 11 European countries, including 470 000 in the UK. Despite this, European countries are very far from achieving herd immunity, researchers warned, as less than 4% of their populations were infected with SARS-CoV-2 up to 4 May 2…”

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confidence: 99%

Covid-19: Medical leaders call for rapid review to prepare for second wave

Mahase¹

2020

BMJ

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“…The debate on how to use mathematical simulations to predict the impact of covid-19 on population health and healthcare needs is ongoing 1. While some researchers have predicted a huge number of deaths and overwhelmed healthcare systems,2 others have forecast a much smaller burden 3.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…While some researchers have predicted a huge number of deaths and overwhelmed healthcare systems,2 others have forecast a much smaller burden 3. Now, predictions aim to estimate the probability and the scale of a second wave 1. Many prediction models share the problem of being built on fragile epidemiological data, especially early in the course of a pandemic, and are open to uncertainties 4.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Now, predictions aim to estimate the probability and the scale of a second wave 1. Many prediction models share the problem of being built on fragile epidemiological data, especially early in the course of a pandemic, and are open to uncertainties 4. The public are stressed by these predictions and policymakers are sceptical about using this information for decision making.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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