COVID-19 risk perception and public compliance with preventive measures: Evidence from a multi-wave household survey in the MENA region

Abstract

This study investigates the association between individuals’ concern about contracting COVID-19 and their compliance with recommended preventive and mitigation measures, namely wearing face masks, maintaining social distancing and handwashing, in the context of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The empirical analysis is based on a panel dataset from the Combined COVID-19 MENA Monitor Household Survey, which was carried out in Jordan, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia and Egypt. Applying a probit estimation technique, a positive and statistically significant association was found between the level of COVID-19 worries and individuals’ compliance with the mitigation measures. Notably, the results revealed that this association followed a “first-up-then-down” trend, showing that compliance with the three mitigation measures rose as individuals’ worries about contracting the virus increased, and then markedly decreased after they had been infected. Socio-demographic characteristics contributing to lower levels of compliance included being male, being over 60, having lower levels of education and having a lower household income. A cross-country analysis revealed remarkable differences between the five countries, with the strongest association between COVID-19 concerns and adherence to mitigation measures observed in Tunisia and Sudan, and the weakest association seen in Jordan and Morocco. Policy implications are outlined for effective risk communication and management during disease outbreaks and public health emergencies to encourage appropriate public health behaviours.

Assessing the perceived effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-Cov-2 transmission risk: an experimental study in Europe

“…Gender also plays a role, as females demonstrate higher compliance with COVID-19 guidance 27 – 31 . In terms of levels of education, higher education is positively associated with both COVID-19 risk perception and adherence to pandemic rules 28 – 30 . Exposure to crises 32 , 33 , affective responses to threats 34 – 36 , and the variety of specific methods used to measure risk perception 37 further contribute to this heterogeneity.…”

“…This aligns with existing health behaviour theories, such as the Health Belief Model 39 and the Protection Motivation Theory 40 , which posit that health behaviours depend on people’s perceived risk, encompassing the perceived severity of and vulnerability to a health threat. Within the context of protective behaviours during crises, this suggests that higher perceived risk motivates individuals to comply with public health guidelines and associated NPIs 28 , 41 . Likewise, recent research suggests that a reduction in risk perception that naturally occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic corresponds with a decrease in compliance with public health measures, highlighting the interplay between risk perception and behaviour 38 .…”

Predicting COVID-19 vaccine uptake: Comparing the health belief model and theory of planned behavior

“…As the COVID-19 pandemic expanded, most governments sought to curb its widespread impact by implementing measures such as social distancing, mask-wearing, and handwashing. 5 These measures were found to be effective in controlling the spread of the disease. However, the most effective solution was to achieve herd immunity through the widespread use of the COVID-19 vaccine.…”