COVID-19 Scenarios: an interactive tool to explore the spread and associated morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2

Noll, Nicholas; Aksamentov, Ivan; Druelle, Valentin; Badenhorst, Abrie; Ronzani, Bruno; Jefferies, Gavin; Albert, Jan; Neher, Richard A.

doi:10.1101/2020.05.05.20091363

Cited by 51 publications

(41 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…SEIR model parameters. We use this information, along with the effectiveness of intervention measures in reducing Rt (Table 1), to run the simulations on covid19-scenarios.org dashboard [46]. [55].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran: challenges and signs of concern with under-reporting of prevalence and deaths

Ghafari

Hejazi

Karshenas

et al. 2020

Preprint

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Many countries with an early outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 struggled to gauge the size and start date of the epidemic mainly due to limited testing capacities and a large proportion of undetected asymptomatic and mild infections. Iran was among the first countries with a major outbreak outside China. Using all genomic sequences collected from patients with a travel link to Iran, we estimate that the epidemic started on 21/01/2020 (95% HPD: 05/12/2019 – 14/02/2020) with a doubling time of 3 days (95% HPD: 1.68 – 16.27). We also show, using air travel data from confirmed exported cases, that from late February to early March the number of active cases across the country were more than a hundred times higher than the reported cases at the time. A detailed province-level analysis of all-cause mortality shows 20,718 (CI 95%: 18,859 – 22,576) excess deaths during winter and spring 2020 compared to previous years, almost twice the number of reported COVID-19-related deaths at the time. Correcting for under-reporting of prevalence and deaths, we use an SEIR model to reconstruct the outbreak dynamics in Iran. Our model forecasted the second epidemic peak and suggests that by 14/07/2020 a total of 9M (CI 95%: 118K – 44M) have recovered from the disease across the country. These findings have profound implications for assessing the stage of the epidemic in Iran and shed light on the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions in Iran and central Asia despite significant levels of under-reporting.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Infectiousness typically starts from 2.5 days and peaks at 1 day before the onset of symptoms. Together with infectious period, latency period sets the serial interval [46].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran: challenges and signs of concern with under-reporting of prevalence and deaths

Ghafari

Hejazi

Karshenas

et al. 2020

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In this paper, an extended SEIR model, similar to that proposed by Neher et al [54,55], is used to model the spread of an epidemic and to estimate the number of patients in a critical state that require intensive care. Similar models are described in Refs.…”

Section: Model Equationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Beyond just “flattening the curve”: Optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions

2020

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When effective medical treatment and vaccination are not available, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social distancing, home quarantine and far-reaching shutdown of public life are the only available strategies to prevent the spread of epidemics. Based on an extended SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model and continuous-time optimal control theory, we compute the optimal non-pharmaceutical intervention strategy for the case that a vaccine is never found and complete containment (eradication of the epidemic) is impossible. In this case, the optimal control must meet competing requirements: First, the minimization of disease-related deaths, and, second, the establishment of a sufficient degree of natural immunity at the end of the measures, in order to exclude a second wave. Moreover, the socioeconomic costs of the intervention shall be kept at a minimum. The numerically computed optimal control strategy is a single-intervention scenario that goes beyond heuristically motivated interventions and simple "flattening of the curve". Careful analysis of the computed control strategy reveals, however, that the obtained solution is in fact a tightrope walk close to the stability boundary of the system, where socioeconomic costs and the risk of a new outbreak must be constantly balanced against one another. The model system is calibrated to reproduce the initial exponential growth phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany.

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“…▶ Abb. 6 zeigt dies anhand der Ergebnisse einer Simulation mit dem NeherLab-Modell der Universität Basel [8], welches wir auf die Zahl der COVID-19-Hospitalisierungen in der Schweiz kalibriert haben. Ohne Lockdown und sonstige Verhaltensveränderungen wäre es, gemäß dieser Modellierung, innerhalb weniger Wochen zu über 80 000 Todesfällen gekommen.…”

Section: Arbeitsproduktivitätunclassified

Gesundheitsökonomische Aspekte der Corona-Krise in der Schweiz: Resultate des COVID-19 Social Monitor

Höglinger

Brunner

Stucki

et al. 2020

Gesundheitsökonomie & Qualitätsmanagement

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ZusammenfassungNach Ausbruch der Corona-Pandemie wurde in der Schweiz Mitte März ein landesweiter Lockdown beschlossen. Dieser hatte extreme Auswirkungen auf das soziale Leben und die Gesundheitsversorgung. Der COVID-19 Social Monitor zeigt einige dieser gesellschaftlichen Veränderungen über die Zeit des Lockdowns und danach auf. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass in der akuten Phase des Lockdowns zwischen rund 50 % (Hausärzte) und über 90 % (Zahnärzte) der medizinischen Behandlungen nicht beansprucht wurden. Ausserdem brach die Arbeitsproduktivität massiv ein. Während des vollen Lockdowns lagen die Produktivitätsverluste bei durchschnittlich 46 %. Mit der schrittweisen Aufhebung des Lockdowns ab Ende April normalisierte sich die Lage weitgehend.

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COVID-19 Scenarios: an interactive tool to explore the spread and associated morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2

Cited by 51 publications

References 17 publications

Ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran: challenges and signs of concern with under-reporting of prevalence and deaths

Ongoing outbreak of COVID-19 in Iran: challenges and signs of concern with under-reporting of prevalence and deaths

Beyond just “flattening the curve”: Optimal control of epidemics with purely non-pharmaceutical interventions

Gesundheitsökonomische Aspekte der Corona-Krise in der Schweiz: Resultate des COVID-19 Social Monitor

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