COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study

Nguyen, Trung; Adnan, Mehnaz; Nguyen, Binh P.; Ligt, Joep de; Geoghegan, Jemma L.; Dean, Richard A.; Jefferies, Sarah; Baker, Michael G; Seah, W.K.G.; Sporle, Andrew; French, Nigel P.; Murdoch, David R.; Welch, David; Simpson, Colin R

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2021.100256

Cited by 18 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 30 publications

(46 reference statements)

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“…A high uptake of effective vaccines, such as that for COVID-19, can lead to substantial reductions in infections [8] , [10] . It is estimated that a COVID-19 vaccine with 95% and 80% efficacy will require 63% and 75% of the population, respectively, to be immune to achieve herd immunity against the infection [10] , [11] . However, COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy has been reported among various populations [12] , [13] , [14] , including low- and middle-income countries where COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy tends to be higher [15] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A high population uptake of vaccines can result in the achievement of a herd immunity threshold. A high uptake of effective vaccines, such as that for COVID-19, can lead to substantial reductions in infections [8] , [10] . It is estimated that a COVID-19 vaccine with 95% and 80% efficacy will require 63% and 75% of the population, respectively, to be immune to achieve herd immunity against the infection [10] , [11] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Implications for COVID-19 vaccine uptake: A systematic review

Adu¹,

Poopola²,

Medvedev³

et al. 2023

Journal of Infection and Public Health

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implications for COVID-19 vaccine uptake: A systematic review

Adu¹,

Poopola²,

Medvedev³

et al. 2023

Journal of Infection and Public Health

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“… 5 6 Moreover, immunizing at-risk individuals allowed those nations to maintain low numbers of hospitalizations and deaths. 25 26 However, the disease burden following such resurgences may be considerably amplified in North Korea, where the vaccination coverage is known to be zero.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Possible Impact of Nationwide Vaccination on Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in North Korea: A Modelling Study

Jung

2022

J Korean Med Sci

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Background The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea) had successfully suppressed the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic via border closures. However, a rapid surge in incidence was reported due to the spread of the omicron variant (B.1.1.529), leading to a national emergency declaration in May 2022. Moreover, with the lack of vaccine accessibility and medical facilities, it is unclear how the disease burden may be exacerbated. Despite the limited epidemiological data, we aimed to project the COVID-19 transmissions in North Korea and quantify the potential impact of nationwide vaccination, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis. Methods A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model was used. The parameters were calibrated using empirical data. Numerical simulations incorporated nationwide COVID-19 vaccination into the proposed model with various asymptomatic proportions. Results Our model suggested that the stringent public health and social measures (PHSMs) reduced the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmissibility by more than 80% in North Korea. Projections that explicitly incorporated vaccination indicated that nationwide vaccination would be necessary to suppress a huge resurgence in both COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations after the stringent PHSMs are eased. Moreover, vaccinating more than 80% of the population with two doses may keep the peak prevalence of hospitalizations below 1,500, averting more than 40,000 hospitalizations across all scenarios. Conclusion Nationwide vaccination would be essential to suppress the prevalence of COVID-19 hospitalizations in North Korea after the stringent PHSMs are lifted, especially in the case of a small asymptomatic proportion.

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“…Mathematical modelling has played a key role in support of elimination strategies. For example, modelling has been used for situational awareness in conditions of low or zero prevalence [8] , to assess risks associated with various border testing and quarantine policies [9] , [10] , [11] , to estimate the probability of elimination under specific control measures [6] , [12] , and to inform vaccination and reopening plans [13] , [14] , [15] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model

Plank¹

2022

Mathematical Biosciences

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COVID-19 vaccine strategies for Aotearoa New Zealand: a mathematical modelling study

Cited by 18 publications

References 30 publications

Implications for COVID-19 vaccine uptake: A systematic review

Implications for COVID-19 vaccine uptake: A systematic review

The Possible Impact of Nationwide Vaccination on Outcomes of the COVID-19 Epidemic in North Korea: A Modelling Study

Minimising the use of costly control measures in an epidemic elimination strategy: A simple mathematical model

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