CPB and Dutch Fiscal Policy in View of the Financial Crisis and Ageing

Bos, Frits; Teulings, Coen N.

doi:10.2139/ssrn.1742181

Cited by 12 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 29 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…updating the budgets and contracts for infrastructure projects for price changes. 1 The role of the CPB in Dutch policy is discussed by Bos (2008) and by Bos and Teulings (2010, 2012. For a more detailed discussion, see Jong et al (2010).…”

Section: Forecasts For Next Yearmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and long-term forecasting by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)

Bos¹,

Teulings²

2013

OECD Journal on Budgeting

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This paper discusses five different types of forecasts by CPB: forecasts for next year, forecasts for next period of government, analyses of the sustainability of public finance, long-term scenarios and long-term effects of election platforms. CPB forecasts for next year and for the next period of government should be seen as well-motivated estimates based on all recent information, plausible assumptions and expected trends. The more distant the look into the future, the more uncertain are the forecasts. For such long-term analyses, the CPB employs scenarios, extended sensitivity analyses and identification of major political choices. Policy making is like sailing in fog. The regular set of CPB forecasts helps to look forward and to monitor whether a change of course is necessary. Despite fundamental uncertainty about the future, the CPB forecasts provide a good base for political discussions and decision making, like a coalition agreement, budget and wage rate negotiations and defining a long-term policy strategy. These forecasts inform Dutch society, reduce transaction costs in economic and political decision making, and foster consensus on economic and fiscal policy.

show abstract

Section: Forecasts For Next Yearmentioning

confidence: 99%

Short- and long-term forecasting by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)

Bos¹,

Teulings²

2013

OECD Journal on Budgeting

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Councils can also evaluate the cost of electoral platforms plans and coalition agreements after elections. 19 Finally, fiscal councils can hold policy makers accountable for choices made regarding the cyclical operation of the rule and define clear legal sanctions before the fact for noncompliance. 20 Governments have incentives to dismiss the advice of fiscal councils.…”

Section: Balanced Regionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Focus on Policy Reform: Mainstreaming risk management into the development agenda: Selected institutional reforms

2013

World Development Report 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The discussion that follows expands on four selected areas where fundamental institutional reforms for better risk management are needed. The four areas cover integrated risk management, fiscal and financial risk management, social insurance and work status, and multinational approaches to address global risks. Why these four? They are by no means exhaustive, but they do represent a framework through which many specific recommendations provided in the Report could be implemented. They discuss innovative solutions to long-standing problems in developing countries. They cut across risks and social systems, using a holistic approach to risk management. Along with the other recommendations in the Report, they can contribute to mainstreaming risk management into the development agenda. The four reforms may require substantial changes in the way national governments develop and implement their general plans.

show abstract

“…14 For a general overview of CPB in Dutch policy making, see also Bos and Teulings (2010) and Butter (2009).…”

Section: Cpb In the Election Cycle And The Annual Budgetary Processmentioning

confidence: 99%

The World's Oldest Fiscal Watchdog: CPB's Analyses Foster Consensus on Economic Policy

Bos

Teulings

2012

SSRN Journal

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The sovereign debt problems in European countries have increased the interest in fiscal watchdogs. This paper discusses the world"s oldest fiscal watchdog, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB). CPB was founded directly after World War II. It has built a reputation of independence and quality, while it has also achieved a solid position in Dutch policy making. CPB provides (i) the macroeconomic forecast underlying the annual budget, (ii) a midterm review of the state of public finance at the start of each election cycle, (iii) cost-benefit analyses of all kind of policy proposals (from education to physical infrastructure), and (iv) an assessment of the economic impact of the platforms of political parties before the election.Four lessons can be drawn from 65 years of Dutch experience. Firstly, a reputation of quality and independence is crucial for the success of a watchdog. Building such a reputation takes time. Secondly, the scope of activities should not be limited to fiscal policy only. The broad scope of CPB"s analyses has contributed to shared public understanding of relevant trade-offs and policy options. Thirdly, the effectiveness of CPB depends crucially on a clear demarcation of the distinctive roles of CPB and political parties. Welfare theory provides little guidance in drawing this demarcation line. Fourthly, being part of the government has the advantage of getting inside information and being effective in the daily policy making process, but the disadvantage that the actual or perceived independence is more difficult to maintain.

show abstract

CPB and Dutch Fiscal Policy in View of the Financial Crisis and Ageing

Cited by 12 publications

References 29 publications

Short- and long-term forecasting by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)

Short- and long-term forecasting by the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB)

Focus on Policy Reform: Mainstreaming risk management into the development agenda: Selected institutional reforms

The World's Oldest Fiscal Watchdog: CPB's Analyses Foster Consensus on Economic Policy

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About