Creating spatially continuous maps of past land cover from point estimates: A new statistical approach applied to pollen data

Pirzamanbein, Behnaz; Lindström, Johan; Poska, Anneli; Sugita, S.; Trondman, Anna-Kari; Fyfe, Ralph; Mazier, Florence; Nielsen, Anne Birgitte; Kaplan, Jed O.; Bjune, Anne E.; Birks, H. John B.; Giesecke, Thomas; Kangur, Mikhel; Latałowa, Małgorzata; Marquer, Laurent; Smith, Benjamin; Gaillard, Marie-José

doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.09.005

Cited by 39 publications

(60 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…The LCT results are of particular interest for REVEALS estimates of vegetation cover produced for climate modelling (e.g. Trondman et al 2015;Pirzamanbein et al 2014). Climate models generally use descriptions of land vegetation including few large units with comparable plant functional types, such as the LCTs used here (e.g.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Marquer et al 2014;Fyfe et al 2013;Nielsen et al 2012;Trondman 2014), (iii) the evaluation of anthropogenic land-cover change scenarios (ALCCs) (Gaillard et al 2010) and (iv) the study of land cover-climate interactions in the past (Strandberg et al 2014). Recently, Pirzamanbein et al (2014) developed a set of statistical models to create spatially continuous maps of past land cover by combining (i) pollen-based REVEALS ''point estimates'' of past land cover and (ii) spatially continuous estimates of past land cover, obtained by merging simulated potential vegetation (using the LPJ-GUESS model; Smith et al 2001) with an anthropogenic land-cover change scenario (KK10; Kaplan et al 2009). These maps (or datasets) of past land-cover can now potentially be used as alternative land-cover descriptions in climate modelling.…”

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Are pollen records from small sites appropriate for REVEALS model-based quantitative reconstructions of past regional vegetation? An empirical test in southern Sweden

Trondman

Gaillard

Sugita

et al. 2015

Veget Hist Archaeobot

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In this paper we test the performance of the Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites (REVEALS) model using pollen records from multiple small sites. We use Holocene pollen records from large and small sites in southern Sweden to identify what is/are the most significant variable(s) affecting the REVEALS-based reconstructions, i.e. type of site (lakes and/or bogs), number of sites, site size, site location in relation to vegetation zones, and/or distance between small sites and large sites. To achieve this objective we grouped the small sites according to (i) the two major modern vegetation zones of the study region, and (ii) the distance between the small sites and large lakes, i.e. small sites within 50, 100, 150, or 200 km of the large lakes. The REVEALS-based reconstructions were performed using 24 pollen taxa. Redundancy analysis was performed on the results from all REVEALS-model runs using the groups within (i) and (ii) separately, and on the results from all runs using the groups within (ii) together. The explanatory power and significance of the variables were identified using forward selection and Monte Carlo permutation tests. The results show that (a) although the REVEALS model was designed for pollen data from large lakes, it also performs well with pollen data from multiple small sites in reconstructing the percentage cover of groups of plant taxa (e.g. open land taxa, summer-green trees, evergreen trees) or individual plant taxa; however, in the case of this study area, the reconstruction of the percentage cover of Calluna vulgaris, Cyperaceae, and Betula may be problematic when using small bogs; (b) standard errors of multiple small-site REVEALS estimates will generally be larger than those obtained using pollen records from large lakes, and they will decrease with increasing size of pollen counts and increasing number of small sites; (c) small lakes are better to use than small bogs if the total number of small sites is low; and (d) the size of small sites and the distance between them do not play a major role, but the distance between the small sites and landscape/vegetation boundaries is a determinant factor for the accuracy of the vegetation reconstructions.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Figmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are pollen records from small sites appropriate for REVEALS model-based quantitative reconstructions of past regional vegetation? An empirical test in southern Sweden

Trondman

Gaillard

Sugita

et al. 2015

Veget Hist Archaeobot

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“…In each Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator; Smith et al, 2001;Sitch et al, 2003) is combined with an ALCC scenario to adjust for human land use (see Pirzamanbein et al, 2014, for more detail):…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The palaeoecological observation based land-cover reconstructions (LCR) recently published by Pirzamanbein et al (2014Pirzamanbein et al ( , 2015 were designed to overcome the above described problems. And to provide an alternative, observation based, land-cover description applicable for a range of studies on past vegetation and its interactions with climate, soil and humans.…”

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confidence: 99%

Analysing the sensitivity of pollen based land-cover maps to different auxiliary variables

Pirzamanbein

Poska

Lindström

2017

Preprint

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Abstract. Realistic depictions of past land cover are needed to investigate prehistoric environmental changes and anthropogenic impacts. However, observation based reconstructions of past land cover are rare. Recently Pirzamanbein et al. (2015, arXiv:1511) developed a statistical interpolation method that produces spatially complete reconstructions of past land cover from pollen assemblage. These reconstructions incorporate a number of auxiliary datasets raising questions regarding both the method's sensitivity to the choice of auxiliary data and the unaffected transmission of observational data. 5Here the sensitivity of the method is examined by performing spatial reconstructions for northern Europe during three time periods (1900 CE, 1725 CE and 4000 BCE), based on irregularly distributed pollen based land cover, available for ca 25% of the area, and different auxiliary datasets. The spatially explicit auxiliary datasets considered include the most commonly utilized sources of the past land-cover data -estimates produced by a dynamic vegetation (DVM) and anthropogenic landcover change (ALCC) models -and modern elevation. Five different auxiliary datasets were considered, including different 10 climate data driving the DVM and different ALCC models. The resulting reconstructions were evaluated using deviance information criteria and cross validation for all the time periods. For the recent time period, 1900 CE, the different land-cover reconstructions were also compared against a present day forest map.The tests confirm that the developed statistical model provides a robust spatial interpolation tool with low sensitivity to differences in auxiliary data and high capacity to un-distortedly transmit the information provided by sparse pollen based 15 observations. Further, usage of auxiliary data with high spatial detail improves the model performance for the areas with complex topography or where observational data is missing.

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“…Interpretation can also be informed by simulation studies or "thought experiments" (e.g., Bunting et al, 2004;Caseldine and Fyfe, 2006;Caseldine et al, 2007;Hellman et al, 2009a,b) using the HUMPOL suite Bunting and Middleton, 2005). This approach was developed into the Multiple Scenario Approach (MSA; Bunting and Middleton, 2009); where the LRA takes an algebraic approach to reconstructing past land cover numerically, which can then be extrapolated into mapped forms (e.g., Pirzamanbein et al, 2014), the MSA uses computer simulations to produce many possible reconstructions, which are then tested using the model (see Figure 1 for a comparison of the two approaches). This paper presents two examples of the use of the MSA to address landscape-scale questions about land cover and land use during the Neolithic in the British Isles, and considers lessons learned for future development of this relatively new and under-explored method.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Maps From Mud—Using the Multiple Scenario Approach to Reconstruct Land Cover Dynamics From Pollen Records: A Case Study of Two Neolithic Landscapes

et al. 2018

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Pollen records contain a wide range of information about past land cover, but translation from the pollen diagram to other formats remains a challenge. In this paper, we present LandPolFlow, a software package enabling Multiple Scenario Approach (MSA) based land cover reconstruction from pollen records for specific landscapes. It has two components: a basic Geographic Information System which takes grids of landscape constraints (e.g., topography, geology) and generates possible "scenarios" of past land cover using a combination of probabilistic and deterministic placement rules to distribute defined plant communities within the landscape, and a pollen dispersal and deposition model which simulates pollen loading at specified points within each scenario and compares that statistically with actual pollen assemblages from the same location. Goodness of fit statistics from multiple pollen site locations are used to identify which scenarios are likely reconstructions of past land cover. We apply this approach to two case studies of Neolithisation in Britain, the first from the Somerset Levels and Moors and the second from Mainland, Orkney. Both landscapes contain significant evidence of Neolithic activity, but present contrasting contexts. In Somerset, wet-preserved Neolithic remains such as trackways are abundant, but little dry land settlement archaeology is known, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was extensively wooded. In Orkney, the Neolithic archaeology includes domestic and monumental stone-built structures forming a UNESCO World Heritage Site, and the pre-Neolithic landscape was largely treeless. Existing pollen records were collated from both landscapes and correlated within new chronological frameworks (presented elsewhere). This allowed pollen data to be grouped into 200 year periods, or "timeslices," for reconstruction of land cover through time using the MSA. Reconstruction suggests that subtle but clear and persistent impacts of Neolithisation on land cover occurred in both landscapes, with no reduction in impact during periods when archaeological records suggest lower activity levels. By applying the methodology Bunting et al. Land Cover From Pollen Records to specific landscapes, we critically evaluate the strengths and weaknesses and identify potential remedies, which we then expand into consideration of how simulation can be incorporated into palynological research practice. We argue that the MSA deserves a place within the palynologist's standard tool kit.

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Creating spatially continuous maps of past land cover from point estimates: A new statistical approach applied to pollen data

Cited by 39 publications

References 56 publications

Are pollen records from small sites appropriate for REVEALS model-based quantitative reconstructions of past regional vegetation? An empirical test in southern Sweden

Are pollen records from small sites appropriate for REVEALS model-based quantitative reconstructions of past regional vegetation? An empirical test in southern Sweden

Analysing the sensitivity of pollen based land-cover maps to different auxiliary variables

Maps From Mud—Using the Multiple Scenario Approach to Reconstruct Land Cover Dynamics From Pollen Records: A Case Study of Two Neolithic Landscapes

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