Crime and arrests: deterrence or resource reallocation?

Garrett, Thomas A.; Ott, Lesli S.

doi:10.1080/13504851.2010.528354

Cited by 7 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 16 publications

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“…The rational choice model also predicts that a higher number of police will reduce crimes, either because a greater police presence makes criminal activities less attractive or because more officers on the beat will apprehend more criminals (Garrett and Ott 2011;Tella and Schargrodsky 2004). In this study, the numbers of police in each Mexican state for the sample period are not available.…”

Section: B Deterrence Variablesmentioning

confidence: 95%

Assessing the Impacts of Labor Market and Deterrence Variables on Crime Rates in Mexico

Liu

Fullerton

Ashby

2012

Contemporary Economic Policy

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Many studies examine the relationship between crime rates and various economic and/or sociodemographic variables in high income countries, but similar efforts for middle and low income countries are less common. Utilizing an 8‐year panel data sample for all 32 states in Mexico, this study assesses the impact of Mexican labor market and deterrence variables on various Mexican crime rates. The principal results indicate that: (1) State gross domestic product (GDP) per capita has ambiguous effect on crime rates under different conditions. Both wages and unemployment rates are negatively linked with crime rates. (2) Although the Mexican judicial and public security systems are widely believed to be ineffective, increased federal police forces and incarceration rates are associated with lower crime rates, but higher public security expenditure per capita is associated with higher crime rates. (3) The impacts from labor market and deterrence variables presented in (1) and (2) continue to hold under the Fox administration as well as for non‐border states. Their respective impacts diminish, however, under the Calderon administration as well as for border states because of the small number of observations. Overall, the results indicate that increasing average wages, federal police forces, and incarceration rates would have significant impacts on reducing crime rates in Mexican states. (JEL O54, K42)

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Section: B Deterrence Variablesmentioning

confidence: 95%

Assessing the Impacts of Labor Market and Deterrence Variables on Crime Rates in Mexico

Liu

Fullerton

Ashby

2012

Contemporary Economic Policy

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Enhancing Police Efficiency in Detecting Crime in Hong Kong

Wong

Manning

2022

Crime Law Soc Change

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In this study we examine how the process of crime detection by frontline and investigative police can be modified so that the same level of policing inputs (i.e. police strength) can produce more outcomes (i.e. crime detection rate). A pooled frontier analysis method is used to measure the relative efficiency of 18 police districts in Hong Kong from 2007 to 2015 (n = 18 districts × 9 years = 162 decision making units (DMUs)), demonstrating variable returns-to-scale. Findings reveal that 95 of the 162 DMUs were found to be inefficient compared to the benchmark DMUs (those police districts identified by the Free Disposable Hull (FDH) approach as efficient) with an average FDH efficiency score of 95.37 out of a possible score of 100. Efficient districts provide an exemplar on how an inefficient district could achieve an optimal input–output translation for the detection of crime. This evidence can be used to shape police policy at the district level. This study represents the first frontier analysis of police efficiency in the detection of crime in Hong Kong using the most recent efficiency technique. We produce evidence that can inform police policy regarding the deployment of finite resources that improve the efficiency of detection without compromising other institutional targets.

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What came first: the police or the incident? Bidirectional relationships between police actions and police incidents

Simpson

Hipp

2017

Policing and Society

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The present research examines the long-term, bidirectional relationships between calls for service, crime, and two police patrol strategies in Santa Monica, California: foot patrol and police stops. Using nine years of monthly data (2006 to 2014), we estimate two sets of blocklevel, longitudinal models to tease apart these relationships. In our first set of models, we use police actions and calls for service in the preceding month(s) to predict crime in the subsequent month. In our second set of models, we use calls for service and crime in the preceding month(s) to predict police actions in the subsequent month. We find that while changes in calls for service and crime often precede changes in police action, changes in crime also tend to follow them. For example, police stops appear to be particularly receptive to burglary: blocks with more burglaries receive greater numbers of police stops, and blocks with more police stops have reduced odds of experiencing burglary. We also find that the length of effects of predictors varies as a function of predictor and outcome: whereas some predictors exhibit short temporal effects (e.g., one month), other predictors exhibit much longer temporal effects (e.g., twelve months). Our results thus provide important insight into the spatial and temporal relationships between police actions and police incidents. Police actions must be neatly tailored to police incidents at precise levels if long-term deterrent effects at these levels are to be achieved.

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Crime and arrests: deterrence or resource reallocation?

Cited by 7 publications

References 16 publications

Assessing the Impacts of Labor Market and Deterrence Variables on Crime Rates in Mexico

Assessing the Impacts of Labor Market and Deterrence Variables on Crime Rates in Mexico

Enhancing Police Efficiency in Detecting Crime in Hong Kong

What came first: the police or the incident? Bidirectional relationships between police actions and police incidents

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