Crime and coronavirus: social distancing, lockdown, and the mobility elasticity of crime

Abstract

Governments around the world restricted movement of people, using social distancing and lockdowns, to help stem the global coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. We examine crime effects for one UK police force area in comparison to 5-year averages. There is variation in the onset of change by crime type, some declining from the WHO 'global pandemic' announcement of 11 March, others later. By 1 week after the 23 March lockdown, all recorded crime had declined 41%, with variation: shoplifting (− 62%), theft (− 52%), domestic abuse (− 45%), theft from vehicle (− 43%), assault (− 36%), burglary dwelling (− 25%) and burglary non-dwelling (− 25%). We use Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports to calculate the mobility elasticity of crime for four crime types, finding shoplifting and other theft inelastic but responsive to reduced retail sector mobility (MEC = 0.84, 0.71 respectively), burglary dwelling elastic to increases in residential area mobility (− 1), with assault inelastic but responsive to reduced workplace mobility (0.56). We theorise that crime rate changes were primarily caused by those in mobility, suggesting a mobility theory of crime change in the pandemic. We identify implications for crime theory, policy and future research.

Somehow I always end up alone: COVID-19, social isolation and crime in Queensland, Australia

“…shoplifting) and a sharp increase and subsequent decrease in commercial burglary. Halford et al ( 2020 ) used Google Covid-19 Community Mobility Reports to estimate the elasticity of crime to measure responsiveness to social restrictions imposed in a United Kingdom police service. They found that elasticities varied by crime type.…”

Social and Biological Parameters Involved in Suicide Ideation During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Narrative Review

“…For example, increased time spent at the home might be expected to raise the opportunities for child abuse and domestic violence as the potential victims are spending more time together. 39 The list of nation-wide lock-down deaths in India during Covid-19 pandemic is presented in Table 1. Sleep disturbances, distress, anxiety, depression, and suicides were also reported in other Asian countries, Africa, Australia, Europe, North and South America due to Covid-19. 40 The psychiatric effect of Covid-19 poses increased the risk of suicide and other distress for months and years ahead.…”

Crime and COVID-19: Effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City

“…However, most studies did not explicitly examine the association between changes in mobility and changes in crime, and instead used discrete before and after periods to identify changes in crime patterns. Two exceptions are Mohler et al (2020) and Halford et al (2020), who in addition to using discrete time periods, also examined the relationship between crime There are, however, important limitations to these studies. The first is that the Google mobility indices are only available from early 2020, thus it is not possible to examine the relationship between crime and mobility over a longer time period.…”

“…The potential effects of pandemic-related lockdowns on crime have generated much academic interest. However, to date little research has been conducted outside of a few select countries that tend to be over-represented in criminological research: the US (Ashby, 2020a(Ashby, , 2020bCampedelli, Aziani, & Favarin, 2020;Mohler et al, 2020;Piquero et al, 2020;Shayegh & Malpede, 2020), Europe (Buil-Gil, Miró-llinares, Moneva, & Díaz-Castaño, 2020;Gerell, Kardell, & Kindgren, 2020;Halford, Dixon, Farrell, Malleson, & Tilley, 2020), and Australia (Payne, Morgan, & Piquero, 2020).…”