Crime and the Legalization of Recreational Marijuana

Abstract

First-pass evidence is provided that the legalization of the cannabis market across US states is inducing a crime drop. We exploit the staggered legalization of recreational marijuana enacted by the adjacent states of Washington (end of 2012) and Oregon (end of 2014). Combining county-level difference-in-differences and spatial regression discontinuity designs, we find that the policy caused a significant reduction in rapes and property crimes on the Washington side of the border in 2013-2014 relative to the Oregon side and relative to the pre-legalization years 2010-2012. The legalization also increased consumption of marijuana and reduced consumption of other drugs and both ordinary and binge alcohol. Four possible mechanisms are discussed: the direct psychotropic effects of cannabis; substitution away from violence-inducing substances; reallocation of police effort; reduced role of criminals in the marijuana business.

Alcohol Price Floors and Externalities: The Case of Fatal Road Crashes

“…Road fatalities in fact may continue to occur after the enactment of the MUP reform if drivers substitute away from alcoholic beverages to other driving-impairing substances, such as illegal drugs. If such a substitutability were at work as suggested by several empirical studies (e.g., DiNardo and Lemieux, 2001;Crost and Guerrero, 2012;Anderson et al, 2013;Dragone et al, 2019), a reduction in Q would not lead to a reduction in E, because ρ is close to zero. This implies π 1 would be close to zero as well.…”

Recreational marijuana legalization and admission to the foster‐care system

“…There is also evidence that marijuana substitutes for alcohol and that, in states that legalize marijuana, alcohol consumption decreases (Anderson et al., 2013; Dragone et al., 2019). Furthermore, the AFCARS data do report removals for parental alcohol abuse separately from other forms of parental drug use, enabling us to provide some direct evidence on the relative importance of substitution effects.…”

“…These legalizations represent a radical departure from long‐standing policy toward the drug, and have attracted commensurate attention from researchers. While much of the literature on legalization has centered on its effects on broader socioeconomic outcomes such as housing prices and crime (see, e.g., Brinkman & Mok‐Lamme, 2019; Cheng et al., 2018; Dragone et al., 2019), less is known about the direct welfare consequences of legalization policies for marijuana users and those close to them. Less still is known about the effects of legalization on child welfare.…”

Postmortem THC in decedents following legalization of recreational cannabis in Clark County, Nevada

“…However, more recent studies related to opioid overdoses and medical legalization show that there may not be a correlation as previously suggested [23]. A modest reduction in violent crimes has also been observed following recreational marijuana legalization [24]. Conversely, studies have shown a temporary increase in traffic fatalities following recreational marijuana legalization in US and neighboring jurisdictions [25].…”