Crime, quarantine, and the U.S. coronavirus pandemic

Abstract

Research Summary Priorresearch has produced varied results regarding the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on crime rates, depending on the offenses and time periods under investigation. The current study of weekly offense rates in large U.S. cities is based on a longer time period, a greater number of offenses than prior research, and a varying number of cities for each offense (max = 28, min = 13, md = 20). We find that weekly property crime and drug offense rates, averaged across the cities, fell during the pandemic. An exception is motor vehicle theft, which trended upward after pandemic‐related population restrictions were instituted in March 2020. Robbery rates also declined immediately after the pandemic began. Average weekly homicide, aggravated assault, and gun assault rates did not exhibit statistically significant increases after March. Beginning in June 2020, however, significant increases in these offenses were detected, followed by declines in the late summer and fall. Fixed‐effects regression analyses disclose significant decreases in aggravated assault, robbery, and larceny rates associated with reduced residential mobility during the pandemic. These results support the routine activity hypothesis that the dispersion of activity away from households increases crime rates. The results for the other offenses are less supportive. Policy Implications Quarantines and lockdowns, although necessary to reduce contagious illness, are not desirable crime‐control devices. An object lesson of the coronavirus pandemic is to redouble effective crime reduction strategies and improve police–community relations without confining people to their homes.

Nightlife activity and crime: The impact of COVID-19 related nightlife restrictions on violent crime

“…At present, it is not obvious what kind of violence has contributed to this drop, but a British study based on emergency room data, for example, found that the reduced violence was limited to violence outside the home, whereas violence at home did not wane ( Shepherd, Moore, Long, Mercer Kollar, & Sumner, 2021 ). Additionally, although early evidence has suggested that domestic violence might actually have increased during the lockdown ( Piquero, Jennings, Jemison, Kaukinen, & Knaul, 2021 ), other studies have not reached the same conclusion ( Lopez & Rosenfeld, 2021 ; Wang, Fung, & Weatherburn, 2021 ).…”

COVID-19, Violent Crime, and Domestic Violence: An Exploratory Analysis

“…As restrictions were lifted, violent crime peaked during the summer and fall months. The authors argue that this finding lends support to routine activities/opportunity theory, as violent crime increased with greater levels of mobility of potential victims and offenders through time and space (Lopez & Rosenfeld, 2021 ).…”

A New Wave of Mass Shootings? Exploring the Potential Impact of COVID-19

“…In the United States, large scale shifts in routine activities brought on by social distance orders, school closures, and the closing of businesses, meant that more individuals were spending time at home, outside of the public sphere. Not surprisingly, these dramatic shifts in routines impacted crime and violence (Lopez & Rosenfeld, 2021). For mass shootings, however, the nature of this impact was unclear.…”