Criminal Careers in the Short-Term: Intra-Individual Variability in Crime and Its Relation to Local Life Circumstances

Horney, Julie; Osgood, D. Wayne; Marshall, Ineke Haen

doi:10.2307/2096316

Cited by 778 publications

(761 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Several studies have examined Sampson and Laub's stability/change thesis and report results consistent with their view that both persistent individual differences (stability) and local life circumstances (change) are important for understanding offending over the life-course (Blokland and Nieuwbeerta 2005;Horney et al 1995;Laub and Sampson 2003;Paternoster et al 1997;Piquero et al 2002a). It is also important to note that studies have also shown that the type and quality of life circumstances and not just the mere presence of it, is important for aiding the desistance process (Laub et al 1998).…”

Section: Theory Informed By Criminal Careers Researchmentioning

confidence: 81%

Invited Address: James Joyce, Alice in Wonderland, the Rolling Stones, and Criminal Careers

Piquero

2011

J Youth Adolescence

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The study of criminal careers generally, and patterns of continuity and change in criminal offending in particular, has been a long-standing interest to social scientists across many disciplines. This article provides readers with an overview of this line of research. After an introduction to the criminal career perspective, the article presents several 'facts' that have emerged from criminal career studies. This material segues into a discussion of theories based on criminal careers research as well as a related discussion of the emerging methods and trends in the area. The article closes with some observations about public policy with respect to criminal careers knowledge and identifies some neglected research needs. A key summary conclusion is that the processes associated with continuity and change are not mutually exclusive, but instead are important and complimentary aspects of criminal careers research.

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Section: Theory Informed By Criminal Careers Researchmentioning

confidence: 81%

Invited Address: James Joyce, Alice in Wonderland, the Rolling Stones, and Criminal Careers

Piquero

2011

J Youth Adolescence

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“…Findings elsewhere suggest that alcohol impacts on within individual variation in antisocial behaviour, including violent behaviour (see Farrington 1995;Hussong et al 2004) and shortterm changes in alcohol consumption have been identified as having proximal influence on the likelihood of violent behaviour (Horney et al 1995), even when controlling for anti-social personality (Falls-Stewart et al 2003). Such findings support, at least in part, the theory that alcohol intoxication facilitates violence via its psychopharmacologic effects on cognitive processing or expectancies associated with intoxication (Falls-Stewart et al 2003).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 80%

“…Gottfredson and Hirschi 1990). This view implies that life events after childhood are of little, if any, explanatory importance H et al 1995:655) and denies substantial changes in offending over the life-course, such as those found by Sampson and Laub (1993) (Horney et al 1995). Whilst this reasoning is plausible, it is equally plausible that alcohol consumption also has a specific influence on outcomes in adolescence and early adulthood, in addition to the common influence of problem behaviour (Duncan et al 1997).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Dynamic Risk of Heavy Episodic Drinking on Interpersonal Assault in Young Adolescence and Early Adulthood

Lightowlers¹,

Elliot²,

Tranmer³

2014

CRIMIN

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This study examines the extent to which variation in violent behaviour can be explained by variation in drinking patterns in late adolescence and early adulthood using panel data of regular drinkers aged between 16 and 29 in England and Wales. Multi-level models explore individuals propensity to commit assault controlling for their drinking behaviour. Results suggest that males and younger people are more likely to commit assault offences and that around 60% of the variation in assault is between people; the remainder being within people between observations. Heavy episodic drinking is a significant predictor of assault in all models. Collectively, the findings point to a periodic association between drinking patterns and violent outcomes, supporting evidence of other forms of contemporaneous association.

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“…In reality, however, the GCM is a residual model, meaning that the random effects summarize what is left rather than control for unobserved heterogeneity. Individuals interested in controlling for individual differences have to take the additional step of decomposing the time-varying covariates into between individual and within individual terms as done in Horney et al (1995). The GCM will provide results that are very similar to what can be achieved through a fixed effect panel model.…”

Section: How Are Methods For Trajectories Applied?mentioning

confidence: 98%

“…These approaches move beyond fixed effect or random effect approaches that only seek to control for stable fixed effects when studying the impact of time-varying covariates. 5 Prominent examples of the use of GCM for this purpose include the study of marriage and work by Horney et al (1995) and Laub and Sampson (2003). In reality, however, the GCM is a residual model, meaning that the random effects summarize what is left rather than control for unobserved heterogeneity.…”

Section: How Are Methods For Trajectories Applied?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Measuring Long Term Individual Trajectories of Offending Using Multiple Methods

2009

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Criminal career researchers and developmental criminologists have identified describing individual trajectories of offending over time as a key research question. In response, recently various statistical methods have been developed and used to describe individual offending patterns over the life-course. Two approaches that are prominent in the current literature are standard growth curve modeling (GCM) and group-based trajectory models (GTM). The goal of this paper is to explore ways in which these different models with different sets of assumptions, do in fact lead to different outcomes on individual trajectories. Using a particularly rich dataset, the criminal career and life-course study, we estimate a unique trajectory for each individual in the sample using the GCM and GTM. We also estimate separate trajectories for each individual directly using the long time series. We then compare these three separate trajectories for each individual. We find that the average trajectories obtained from the different approaches match each other. However, for any given individual, these approaches tell very different stories. For example, each method identifies a rather different set of individuals as desistors. This comparison highlights the strengths and weaknesses of each approach, and more broadly, it reveals the uncertainty involved with measuring long term patterns of change in latent propensity to commit crimes.

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Criminal Careers in the Short-Term: Intra-Individual Variability in Crime and Its Relation to Local Life Circumstances

Cited by 778 publications

References 30 publications

Invited Address: James Joyce, Alice in Wonderland, the Rolling Stones, and Criminal Careers

Invited Address: James Joyce, Alice in Wonderland, the Rolling Stones, and Criminal Careers

The Dynamic Risk of Heavy Episodic Drinking on Interpersonal Assault in Young Adolescence and Early Adulthood

Measuring Long Term Individual Trajectories of Offending Using Multiple Methods

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