Criminal Trajectories of Adult Sex Offenders and the Age Effect: Examining the Dynamic Aspect of Offending in Adulthood

Abstract

Several policies have been implemented to manage the risk of sex offenders in the community. These policies, however, tend to target older repeat sex offenders. This is the first study to examine and describe the offending trajectories of adult sex offenders from early adolescence to adulthood. The current study is based on a quasipopulation of convicted adult sex offenders in the province of Quebec, Canada. The number of convictions was examined from the period of adolescence up to age 35 using a group-based modeling technique. The study uncovered four offending trajectories: (a) very low-rate group (56%); (b) late-bloomers (12%); (c) low-rate desistors (25%); and (d) highrate chronics (8%). These trajectories differed on several key criminal career dimensions such as age of onset, frequency, diversity, and specialization in different offence types. The study findings challenge the conception of sex offenders' risk as high, stable, and linear. The implications for the risk assessment and the risk prediction of recidivism are discussed.

Patterns of criminal achievement in sexual offending: Unravelling the “successful” sex offender

“…The risk factor approach taken and pursued over the years have restrained possibilities of understanding the criminal career dynamics of individuals committing sex offences and recent empirical studies have emphasized the need to correct this (e.g., Amirault & Lussier, 2011;Lussier & Davies, in press;Lussier, Tzoumakis, Cale, & Amirault, 2010). In that regard, this study is a departure from past research on this issue.…”

Population heterogeneity, state dependence and sexual offender recidivism: The aging process and the lost predictive impact of prior criminal charges over time

“…First, in Canada, juvenile offending records are typically deleted after age 18 and therefore for the majority of participants this information was not available. In a previous study evaluating the offending trajectories of adult sex offenders Lussier, Tzoumakis, et al (2010) report that based on self-report information only 8% of their sample had substantial juvenile criminal activity. Second, risk assessment tools do not typically include developmental indicators such as the age of onset of offending.…”

“…Furthermore, is it possible that with aging and the passage of time, some risk factors lose their predictive value? Currently, actuarial tools are based on crosssectional information about risk factors that do not account the dynamic aspect of offending over time (Lussier & Davies, in press;Lussier, Tzoumakis, et al, 2010). Current actuarial tools do not adjust for within-individual changes in offending over time, which may result in the underestimation of risk for some and overestimation of risk for others.…”

A Developmental Taxonomy of Juvenile Sex Offenders for Theory, Research, and Prevention

“…Few conceptual frameworks have been proposed to explain sexual offending from a developmental perspective (e.g., Lalumière, Harris, Quinsey, & Rice, 2005;Lussier, Leclerc, Cale, & Proulx, 2007;Seto & Barbaree, 1997). Corresponding to this, few empirical studies have examined the developmental course of sexual offending in sexual offenders (Hendriks, van den Berg, & Bijleveld, 2012;Lussier & Davies, in press;Lussier, Tzoumakis, Cale, & Amirault, 2010). The current study addresses these gaps between policy development and the available scientific literature on sexual offending in JSOs (Carpentier, Proulx, & Leclerc, 2011;Hendriks et al, 2012;Van Wijk, Mali, Bullens, & Vermeiren, 2007).…”