Crisis of Ageing in Less Developed Countries: Too Much Consumption or Too Little Production?

Abstract

The age structure in many developing countries is changing Ð the population is ageing. There is increasing concern over the social and economic costs of caring for this ageing population, and the capacity of the state to ®nance the expected rising social expenditure has come to dominate the debate on the economics of population ageing. In this context the elderly are considered primarily as consumers and`dependent' on the working population. Following the Keynesian and post-Keynesian literature, this article argues that such a view of the elderly is incorrect, for several reasons. Firstly, empirical evidence shows that the aged do not consume (relative to their income) more than the rest of the population. Secondly, the issue of`dependency' of the aged should be put in the broader context of the dependency of the unemployed and underemployed in a market economy. Thirdly, the focus of the debate should move away from consumption and towards production; and ®nally, since the old make claims on the national output on the basis of their accumulated assets, savings and pensions, the distributional issues (with regard to assets as well as incomes) have to be an integral part of any pension system in order to alleviate poverty among the elderly.

Sustainability and Social Policy Nexus

“…3 Empirical evidence on fertility and food production does not support Malthusian assumption and its consequences. Not only has fertility world-wide have been falling, but some developing countries have had the fastest decline in fertility in history (Mehri, et al, 2020, Messkoub, 1999, Thirlwall, 2017. In addition growth of food production has outpaced population growth in the past 50 years (FAO, 2002) and is predicted to continue (albeit at a slower rate) well into the middle of 21st century (FAO, 2009) with no threat to world food supply and market in the short-term .…”

Macroeconomic Effects of an Ageing Population in Mauritius

“…According to the estimates of the United Nations (2019), world fertility rate dwindled from approximately five children per woman during 1950s and 1960s to around 2.5 in 2010s with a projected fall below replacement levels by 2070. The rapid pace of demographic changes justifies frequent references to terms such as new “bête noire” of development (Messkoub, 1999) or secular stagnation (Acemoğlu and Restrepo, 2017).…”

Population ageing and inter-generational relations in the MENA: what role for social policy?

“…The demographic landscape of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has been going through fundamental changes in the past few decades with very important implications for the economy and polity of the region. The main drivers of this demographic change have been declining fertility and increasing 1 This paper draws on the author's earlier works on population ageing (Messkoub, 1999), employment and poverty in the MENA (Messkoub, 2008), and ageing and inter-generational relationship (Messkoub, 2013). The author is grateful to three anonymous referees and the editors of the journal for their comments on an earlier draft.…”