Criteria for Evaluating Probability Distribution Models in Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

Takara, Kaoru; Takasao, Takuma

doi:10.2208/jscej.1988.393_151

Cited by 26 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 11 publications

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“…However, the detailed integration periods of these climate models are usually only 20 years for both the present climate and the future climate under a greenhouse gas emission scenario, and a reliable assessment of the future change in rainfall with a long-term return period at each grid site is difficult, due to the limited number of samples (Takara and Takasao, 1988). Moreover, in general, the smallest scale of weather events which are able to be represented by a climate model is only a few times the size of the horizontal resolution of the model.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment for the 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Ishihara¹

2010

Hydrological Research Letters

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Abstract:This study assessed the future change of the 30-year return level of daily precipitation due to global warming for Kagoshima Prefecture, (except for the Amami Islands) in southern Kyushu, Japan, using regional frequency analysis. The 20km-mesh regional climate model (MRI-RCM20) was used for this analysis. The present climate data was reproduced for the years 1981 through 2000, and the future climate data was projected for the years 2081 through 2100 under the greenhouse gas emission scenario SRES A2. Over Kagoshima Prefecture, the future change of the regional average of annual maximum daily precipitation was projected to increase by only 3.3%. However, the quantile that corresponds to the non-exceedance probability of the 30-year return level was projected to increase by 14.5%. As a result, in Kagoshima Prefecture, the 30-year return level of daily precipitation was projected as likely to increase by 18.3% in about one hundred years.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment for the 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Ishihara¹

2010

Hydrological Research Letters

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“…The Shiga Prefectural Government formulated information about the space-time distribution of the various return period floods such as 10, 30, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years based on rain fall data in the past. Rainfall events with 200-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods were set at 1.2, 1.5, and 1.8 times the rainfall size with a 100-year return period [3].…”

Section: Methodology For Evaluating Flood Hazard Riskmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Risk-Based Floodplain Regulation of Shiga Prefecture in Japan

Ichidate¹,

Tsuji²,

Taki³

et al. 2016

E3S Web Conf.

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Abstract. This study shows the overview of the risk-based floodplain regulation implemented by the Shiga Prefectural Government. Shiga, located near Kyoto in central Japan, is home to Lake Biwa, the largest lake in the country. Approximately 500 rivers flow into Lake Biwa from the steep surrounding mountains. The population is concentrated in alluvial cones and alluvial plains. The Shiga Prefectural Government enacted the integrated flood management ordinance in March 2014. This ordinance includes land use and building regulation measures in order to promote flood risk reduction for excessive flood events based on the newly developed risk evaluation method, which is the first in Japan. The goal of the risk-based floodplain regulation is to make use of existing legal framework for effective land use and building regulations, based on comprehensive flood hazard risk maps, to indicate both the damage levels and occurrence probabilities of various floods at all sites in a flood plain.

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“…The jackknife standard deviation shows the error of the estimation (Tung and Mays 1981;Takara and Takasao 1988;Fujibe 2011) …”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Toyama and Mizuno (2002) adopted regional frequency analysis, which might produce less uncertainty of the estimation than other methods can. Kobayashi (2006) estimated probable precipitation using the AMeDAS dataset applying the jackknife method and standard least-square criterion (SLSC; Takara and Takasao 1988). Probable precipitation with a 1-km grid-cell was then calculated from interpolation of the sparse AMeDAS-based probable precipitations.…”

Section: Potential and Limitation Of R/a-based Probable Precipitationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Probable Hourly Precipitation and Soil Water Index for 50-yr Recurrence Interval over the Japanese Archipelago

Saitô

Matsuyama

2015

SOLA

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We produced a preliminary high-resolution probable hourly precipitation (mm h −1 ) and probable Soil Water Index (SWI) for a 50-yr recurrence interval over the Japanese archipelago from 5-km grid-cell Radar/Raingauge-Analyzed Precipitation (R/A) with a 26-yr time series (1988−2013). To date, the selection and applicability of a probability density function such as the Gumbel distribution (GUM) or the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV) has been investigated mainly from a statistical perspective, whereas this study examines them from the viewpoint of disaster prevention. Results show detailed spatial patterns of the probable hourly precipitation and SWI in Japan with ranges of 17.0−158.0 (±1.1−51.1) mm h −1 and 82.1−638.6 (±3.7−93.0), respectively, by spatial resolution of 5-km grid-cell. The probable hourly precipitation by GUM is less than that of GEV with a shape parameter of less than 0.0. Our results demonstrate that R/A-based probable hourly precipitation and SWI by GUM, which has robust estimation, is appropriate for landslide hazard assessment. There results revealed the potential and limitation of estimating the probable precipitation from the R/A dataset. Further study should verify the R/A dataset and the probable precipitations with accumulation of R/A.(Citation: Saito, H., and H. Matsuyama, 2015: Probable hourly precipitation and Soil Water Index for 50-yr recurrence interval over the Japanese archipelago. SOLA, 11, 118−122,

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Criteria for Evaluating Probability Distribution Models in Hydrologic Frequency Analysis

Cited by 26 publications

References 11 publications

Assessment for the 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

Assessment for the 30-Year Daily Precipitation Change due to Global Warming Using Regional Frequency Analysis

The Risk-Based Floodplain Regulation of Shiga Prefecture in Japan

Probable Hourly Precipitation and Soil Water Index for 50-yr Recurrence Interval over the Japanese Archipelago

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