Critical Analysis of the Applicability of the Gompertz-Makeham Law in Human Populations

Pakin, Yu.V.; Hrisanov, S.M.

doi:10.1159/000212600

Cited by 33 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…The sexual dimorphism that has been taken into account in this work for the aging rate dynamics has also been demonstrated previously [Pakin and Hrisanov, 1984;Gav rilov and Gavrilova, 1986] marked differences in the behavior of the curves corresponding to particular states ( fig. 1,2), the general tendency of the actuar ial aging rate dynamics remains similar in each state.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 72%

“…In spite of a large number of mathematical forms for the function put forward after equations 1 and 2 to describe the force of mortality versus age [Perks, 1932;Weibull, 1951;and others], only the Gompertz for mula (equation 1) and especially the Gompertz-Makeham formula (equation 2) have proved able to withstand checking by time and to remain the most adequate as applied to the description of the dynamics of human mortality [Strehler, 1962;Sacher, 1978;Abernethy, 1979;Gavrilov et al, 1983], At the same time, some recent publica tions demonstrate that the real present day age dynamics of human mortality may de viate from the exponential form within indi vidual age intervals [Depoid, 1973;Economos, 1982;Pakin and Hrisanov, 1984;Gavri lov and Gavrilova, 1986]. These studies stim ulated our interest, and we decided to investi gate the character of aging rate changes with advancing age in greater detail.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Actuarial Aging Rate Is Not Constant within the Human Life Span

Ekonomov¹,

Rudd²,

Lomakin³

1989

Gerontology

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It is often believed that the mortality intensity in the modern human population undergoes an exponential growth after 40 years, i.e. the actuarial aging rate is regarded to be constant after 40 years. To check this assumption we have calculated local aging rate values for 13 age ranges (within the interval of 30–92 years) for the male and female population of 48 states of the US (1969–1971). It was found that generally the male aging rate is not constant but lowers monotonically with time, while for females the aging rate has a pronounced ∼-shaped character with a minimum in the range of 45–60 years and a maximum within the range of 70–80 years. The results obtained are a warning to those who boldly use Gompertz or Gompertz-Makeham formulas when describing human aging on the population level.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 72%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Actuarial Aging Rate Is Not Constant within the Human Life Span

Ekonomov¹,

Rudd²,

Lomakin³

1989

Gerontology

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“…Thus, human life expectancy does not adhere to Gompertz's law of mortality after age 30 (Ekonomov et al 1989;Pakin and Hrisanov 1984). However, life expectancy may be calculated starting with agespecific death rates and used statistically to summarize the health status of populations or groups (Lee and Carter 1992).…”

Section: Aging and Nutrient Intakesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research is needed to assess the unique nutrition and wellness needs of aging Californians

Blackburn¹,

Gillogy²,

Hauselt³

2008

Cal Ag

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M ore than 50 years ago, the World Health Organization redefined health as more than merely the absence of disease, expanding it to include the physical, mental and social well-being of populations (Damron-Rodriquez et al. 2005). One of the goals of the National Guidelines for Health Promotion and Disease Prevention (the "Healthy People 2010" report published in January 2000 by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services) was to "extend the years of 'healthy life' in a physical, mental and social context" (US DHHS 2000).The number of older Americans is projected to double by 2030, and one in nine baby boomers is expected to live until age 90. This will place tremendous demands on retirement income, and health and social services. The rapid expansion of the population 65 years and older has already had an economic impact on health-care budgets at all levels. The greatest use of the health-care system occurs during the last years of life (Chernoff 2001), and health experts have projected that at least 7 years of one's life will be spent in ill health (Economist 2000). The health-care expenditures of those over 65, who make up about 13% of the U.S. population, account for at least 30% of the nation's annual health-care costs. Hospital use by people over 65 is about three times that of younger people, and individuals in this group fill the majority of beds in skilled-care facilities (Weimer 1998).The Institute of Medicine (2002) has called for a public health approach to promote the conditions under which people can be healthy, emphasizing health rather than disease, being proactive rather than reactive, and focusing on populations rather than individuals (Wallace 2005).This report puts into context the status of research and development on the nutrition and wellness needs of aging Americans, particularly in California. It helps establish a framework in which UC Cooperative Extension (UCCE) priorities for applied research, and nutrition and wellness education for the elderly, can be reassessed. We used data from the 2001 U.S. Census and the 2001 California Health Interview Survey (CHIS) (Wallace et al. 2003) to show the status of major chronic-disease conditions among older Californians. We also conducted a literature review of scientific research on how physiological factors contribute to the nutrition and wellness status of seniors. Healthy aging becomes a necessityThe percentage of elders in California is growing faster than the rest of the country (Aldwin and Gilmer 2001). California's population of seniors 65 and over is about 4.1 million, or 11.2% of the total population, and county proportions vary (US Census Bureau 2010). The ethnic composition of seniors 65 and older is about 16% white, 10%Research is needed to assess the unique nutrition and wellness needs of aging Californians A public health approach to aging would promote the conditions under which people can be healthy, with emphasis on increasing wellness rather than preventing disease. Asian/Pacific Islander, 8% black, 7% American Indian, and ...

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“…1. Schematic representation of the dynamics of mortality rate increment of a representative popula tion based on 'a piecewise linear analysis with two ele ments', using a 35-to 75-year 'age window' [modified from Pakin and Hrisanov, 1984], Notice the drasti cally different form of the curves for men and women predicted by the statistical analysis.…”

Section: Non-gompertzian Mortality Kineticsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…-was slow, it is gratifying to see that others are now also questioning the validity of the Gompcrt/.ian model [Pakin and Hrisanov, 1984]. However, these authors did not men tion that I had published strong evidence on the inapplicability of the Gompertzian model but cited my main paper on non-Gompertzian mortality kinetics [Economos, 1980] along with gerontology textbooks that have contributed to the previous acceptance of the Gompertzian hypothesis as a law of gerontol ogy, thus leaving me with only the consola tion implied by the old observation that imi tation is the best compliment.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Rate of Aging, Rate of Dying and Non-Gompertzian Mortality – Encore ...

Economos¹

1985

Gerontology

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That the steep increase of mean life expectancy in the developed countries during the first decades of this century has now come to a halt is neither news nor reason for panic. Mean life span cannot exceed the apparent biological limit for the human species, a maximum life span LS_max of 100–110 years, that has remained unchanged across time, races and civilizations; it will moreover remain about 20% less than LS_max even if major diseases were to be eliminated due to the inherent individual differences – only a few individuals are endowed with a genetic-physiologic profile that allows them to reach LS_max. Some concepts on the relation of rates of aging and dying and the mechanism of mortality are here pertinent and are amplified. Finally, though the author has extensively criticized the general applicability of the Gompertz ‘law of mortality’, he has some reservations concerning the recently expressed view that the course of the rate of increase of force of mortality with age may be different in men and women, chiefly slowing down versus continuously increasing; this conclusion may well be an artifact of the analysis.

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Critical Analysis of the Applicability of the Gompertz-Makeham Law in Human Populations

Cited by 33 publications

References 3 publications

Actuarial Aging Rate Is Not Constant within the Human Life Span

Actuarial Aging Rate Is Not Constant within the Human Life Span

Research is needed to assess the unique nutrition and wellness needs of aging Californians

Rate of Aging, Rate of Dying and Non-Gompertzian Mortality – Encore ...

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