Critical Levels and Critical Loads as a Tool for Air Quality Management

Vries, W. de; Posch, Maximilian

doi:10.1002/9780470999318.ch20

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 56 publications

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“…To achieve this, we selected C:N data from a European Soil Survey of 2009 known as LUCAS (Land Use/Cover Area frame statistical Survey). This model allows not only forecasting either a site-specific N eutrophication or an increasing N limitation (De Vries and Posch, 2003), but also trait-mediated species-specific elemental changes in organismal tissues and in their community. The total C and N concentrations were measured in soils of 30 cm, including >8000 agroecosystems.…”

Section: Top-down or Bottom-up: The Squaring Of The Nutrient Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Connecting the Green and Brown Worlds

Mulder

Ahrestani

Bahn

et al. 2013

Ecological Networks in an Agricultural World

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Section: Top-down or Bottom-up: The Squaring Of The Nutrient Cyclementioning

confidence: 99%

Connecting the Green and Brown Worlds

Mulder

Ahrestani

Bahn

et al. 2013

Ecological Networks in an Agricultural World

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“…The VSD model can be seen as the simplest extension of the simple mass balance (SMB) critical load model. The SMB model (De Vries and Posch, 2003a;Posch and De Vries, 1999) computes the maximum input of S and N to an ecosystem (i.e. critical load) that will not lead to harmful effects, using simple mass balance equations.…”

Section: The Vsd Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

Reinds

Oijen²,

Heuvelink

et al. 2008

Geoderma

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Over the past years, Bayesian calibration methods have been successfully applied to calibrate ecosystem models. Bayesian methods combine prior probability distributions of model parameters, based on assumptions about their magnitude and uncertainty, with estimates of the likelihood of the simulation results by comparison with observed values. Bayesian methods also quantify the uncertainty in the updated posterior parameters, which can be used to perform an analysis of model output uncertainty. In this paper, we apply Bayesian techniques to calibrate the VSD soil acidification model for 182 intensively monitored forest sites in Europe. Prior distributions for the model parameters were based on available literature. Since the available literature shows a strong dependence of some VSD parameters on, for example, soil texture, prior distributions were allowed to depend on soil group (i.e. group of soils with similar texture or C/N ratio). The likelihood was computed by comparing modelled soil solution concentrations with observed concentrations for the period 1996-2001. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) was used to sample the posterior parameter space. Two calibration approaches were applied. In the singe-site calibration, the plots are calibrated separately to obtain plot-specific posterior distributions. In the multi-site approach priors are assumed constant in space for each soil group, and all plots are calibrated simultaneously yielding one posterior probability distribution for each soil group.Results from the single-site calibrations show that the model performs much better after calibration compared to a run with standard input parameters. Posterior distributions for HAl equilibrium constants narrow down, thus decreasing parameter uncertainty. For base cation weathering of coarse texture soils the posterior distribution is shifted to larger values, indicating an initial underestimation of the weathering rate for these soils. Results for the 2 parameters related to nitrogen modelling show that the nitrogen processes model formulations in VSD may have to be reconsidered as no evidence is found for a relationship between nitrogen immobilization and the C/N ratio of the soil, as assumed in VSD. The multi-site calibration also strongly decreases model error for most model output parameters, but model error is larger than the median model error from the singe-site calibration.Because the large number of plots calibrated at the same time provides very many observations, the Markov chain converges to a very narrow parameter space, leaving little room for posterior parameter uncertainty. For an uncertainty analysis with VSD on the European scale, this study provides promising results, but more work is needed to investigate how the results can be used on a European scale by looking at regional patterns in calibrated parameters from the site calibration or by calibrating for regions instead of all of Europe.

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“…The model represents the simplest extension of the simple mass balance (SMB) critical load model. The SMB model (Posch & De Vries 1999;De Vries & Posch 2003) is designed to compute maximum input of S and N into ecosystem (i.e. critical load) that will not lead to harmful effects, using simple mass balance equations.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modelling the impact of acid deposition on forest soils in North Bohemian Mountains with two dynamic models: the Very Simple Dynamic Model (VSD) and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC)

et al. 2015

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Vašát R., Pavlů L., Borůvka L., Tejnecký V., Nikodem A. (2015): Modelling the impact of acid deposition on forest soils in North Bohemian Mountains with two dynamic models: the Very Simple Dynamic Model (VSD) and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC). Soil & Water Res., 10: 10-18.Enormous acid deposition that culminated in the 1970s contributed largely to accelerate the process of acidification of soils in northern Bohemia. As a consequence a wide forest decline occurred shortly afterwards. In this paper we present a long-term soil acidification modelling with two dynamic models (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments and Very Simple Dynamic Model) to describe history, make successive prediction, and assess possibility of recovery of the ecosystem. Focused on eight soil acidification indicators we found a strong rise of the soil acidification status in 1970s, when emission load culminated, and a large decrease after the year 2000 (after flue gas desulfurization). We further revealed slight differences, but general similarity, for both dynamic models. The results indicate that the impact of historic massive pollution will not probably be eliminated in the future by the year 2100.

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Critical Levels and Critical Loads as a Tool for Air Quality Management

Cited by 11 publications

References 56 publications

Connecting the Green and Brown Worlds

Connecting the Green and Brown Worlds

Bayesian calibration of the VSD soil acidification model using European forest monitoring data

Modelling the impact of acid deposition on forest soils in North Bohemian Mountains with two dynamic models: the Very Simple Dynamic Model (VSD) and the Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC)

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