Critical parameter estimates for earthquake forecast using PI migration

Wu, Yi; Rundle, John B.; Chen, Chien Chih

doi:10.1007/s11069-014-1553-1

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

References 46 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In most earthquake forecasting or hazard assessment studies, the spatiotemporal parameters and mainshock-aftershock problems are primarily determined based on empirical experiments or average interevent times. Wu et al (2015) [41] illustrated the roles played by these parameters in statistical models by revealing how different parameter values contribute to superior statistical models in different regions with the same target magnitude. Furthermore, statistical models generally take all earthquakes in a magnitude interval into account with fixed parameter values; smaller background earthquakes that belong to different earthquake systems may be included in these calculations.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Characteristic Magnitude and Spatiotemporal Relationships of Aftershocks and Background Earthquakes

2022

Geosciences

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Aftershocks, background earthquakes, and their spatiotemporal parameters have been studied for decades for the purpose of hazard assessment and forecasting. Methods for determining these parameters or seismic attributes are becoming increasingly sophisticated and varied; some optimize the results to fit observations using trial and error, while others do the same by giving prescriptions for a limited region. Here, we propose a method that is potentially useful in general hazard assessment and forecasting applications. We categorized the earthquakes into two groups, aftershocks (triggered events) and background earthquakes, by introducing the network distance, i.e., the shortest distance between two events of equal magnitude within a modified interevent time, into the k-means clustering, which couples the modified interevent time and magnitude hierarchically. Our results show a bimodal distribution consisting of a power law at shorter network distances and a lognormal distribution at longer network distances, implying that earthquakes of magnitudes larger than the characteristic magnitude, found to be 4.5 for Taiwan and 4.3 for California, may be only weakly linked to other same magnitude earthquakes and hence are hard to be triggered even by events of larger size.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Critical parameter estimates for earthquake forecast using PI migration

Cited by 1 publication

References 46 publications

Characteristic Magnitude and Spatiotemporal Relationships of Aftershocks and Background Earthquakes

Characteristic Magnitude and Spatiotemporal Relationships of Aftershocks and Background Earthquakes

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About