Heating is a major source of air pollution. To improve
air quality,
a range of clean heating policies were implemented in China over the
past decade. Here, we evaluated the impacts of winter heating and
clean heating policies on air quality in China using a novel, observation-based
causal inference approach. During 2015–2021, winter heating
causally increased annual PM2.5, daily maximum 8-h average
O3, and SO2 by 4.6, 2.5, and 2.3 μg m–3, respectively. From 2015 to 2021, the impacts of
winter heating on PM2.5 in Beijing and surrounding cities
(i.e., “2 + 26” cities) decreased by 5.9 μg m–3 (41.3%), whereas that in other northern cities only
decreased by 1.2 μg m–3 (12.9%). This demonstrates
the effectiveness of stricter clean heating policies on PM2.5 in “2 + 26” cities. Overall, clean heating policies
caused the annual PM2.5 in mainland China to reduce by
1.9 μg m–3 from 2015 to 2021, potentially
avoiding 23,556 premature deaths in 2021.