Croissance économique et seuils hydro-climatiques dans les pays en développement

Abstract

Nous mettons en évidence un effet non linéaire exercé par les conditions hydro-climatiques, mesurées par un indicateur standardisé de précipitation et d’évapotranspiration, sur la croissance économique d’un échantillon de pays en développement de 1980 à 2011. Nous montrons (i) que cette relation non linéaire s’observe uniquement pour les pays à dominante agricole, et (ii) que les conditions hydro-climatiques à l’origine des changements de régime sont beaucoup plus faibles que celles correspondant à des conditions extrêmes.

Heat and Economics: Climate Change's Influence on Madagascar's GDP

“…For predominantly agricultural countries, based on the use of a precipitation-evapotranspiration index, [10] ex-plain that climate variability negatively impacts economic growth in these countries. Similarly, using the same index, [9] show that people in low-income countries are highly dependent on local climatic conditions for their produc-tion.…”

Heat and Economics: Climate Change’s Influence on Madagascar’s GDP

“…For predominantly agricultural countries, based on the use of a precipitation-evapotranspiration index, Couharde, C., Généroso, R. [10] explain that climate variability negatively impacts economic growth in these countries. Similarly, using the same index, Couharde C., Damette 0., Generoso R., et Mohaddes K. [9] show that people in lowincome countries are highly dependent on local climatic conditions for their production.…”

Climate Change in Developing Countries : Global Warming Effects, Transmission Channels and Adaptation Policies

“…Using sub-national data for the U.S. economy, Colacito et al (2019) find that temperature hikes reduce GDP growth, and Hsiang et al (2017), by looking at the probable effects of climate change on a wide set of economic outcomes, also conclude that climate change will negatively affect the GDP and will increase spatial inequalities. Using a precipitation-evapotranspiration index, Couharde and Généroso (2017) show that hydro-climatic conditions affect economic growth in predominantly agricultural developing countries. Couharde et al (2019) evidence, using the same index, that the effects of El Niño and La Niña episodes on real GDP per capita in low-and middle-income countries depend on local weather conditions and are greater in tropical, humid countries.…”