Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Ewert, Frank; Rötter, Reimund P.; Bindi, Marco; Webber, Heidi; Trnka, Miroslav; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Ittersum, M.K. van; Janssen, Sander; Rivington, Mike; Semenov, Mikhail A.; Wallach, Daniel; Porter, John R.; Stewart, Derek; Verhagen, A.; Gaiser, Thomas; Palosuo, Taru; Tao, Fulu; Nendel, Claas; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Bartošová, Lenka; Asseng, Senthold

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

Cited by 261 publications

(149 citation statements)

References 243 publications

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“…Ewert et al (2015) seek to provide an overview on the current modeling of crops aiming at assessing the risks of climate change to food production and to what extent the crop models comply with the IAM (Integrated Assessment and Modelling) requirements. …”

Section: Theoretical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Drought Affects Agricultural Insurance Policies: The Case of Italy

Fusco¹,

Miglietta²,

Porrini³

2018

JSD

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Despite their growing intensity and the enormous costs, adverse meteorological events are still perceived as "exceptional". Among the adverse weather events, the management of drought risk plays a key role due to the more pressing problem of the scarcity of water resources. In this context, agricultural insurance can represent a financial and risk mitigation tool for farmers. In this perspective, the aims of this study are: (1) to analyze, through a systematic review, the main findings of the scientific literature focused on the empirical and theoretical approach to the relation between adverse weather events in agriculture, risk and insurance; (2) to collect agroclimatic and insurance data for each Italian province for the period 2004-2011, (3) to measure the influence of climatic agroclimatic variables on insurance variables, i.e. Total Premiums, Insured Value and Certificates.The results of the analysis show the significance of the precipitation variable and its negative effect with each insurance dependent variable. The same result can be observed focusing on the effect of minimum temperature on two insurance variables, i.e. Total Premiums and Certificates. Models tested explain a range between 44% and 51% of the variation in our insurance dependent variables.

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Section: Theoretical Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Drought Affects Agricultural Insurance Policies: The Case of Italy

Fusco¹,

Miglietta²,

Porrini³

2018

JSD

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“…As a framework based on the scope of the Environmental Management and Sustainable Development ISSN 2164-7682 2017 European Union, a process of IAM has been proposed as a means for reaching better results in the ex-ante assessment, as well as improving the management of complex systems (Harris, 2002). IAM represents a mix of disciplinary models, using quantitative methods and producing several sustainability indicators (Ewert et al, 2015). With an interdisciplinary vision and considering three dimensions of sustainability, Sustainability Impact Assessment -SIA is a methodology addressed by OECD focused in social, economic and environmental dimensions, ex-ante from policies and programs on a strategic level, analyzing potential impacts of policies before their implementation, as well as, offering alternatives for decision-makers by alerting the possible risks and opportunities (OECD, 2010).…”

Section: Sustainability Assessmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sustainability Impact Assessment – An Overview with a Holistic and Transdisciplinary Perspective towards Agricultural Research

Mendonca¹,

Laques²

2017

EMSD

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It is important to insert agricultural research in this paper by considering it as a strategic area for providing knowledge and a technological base for agricultural production, considering that this sector generates outcomes with respective impacts to rural zones, supply-chain, economy, society and environment, representing a key piece for reaching United Nations objectives of sustainable development to each country and to the planet. Aiming to analyze how agricultural research organizations (as for instance: INRA and CIRAD, from France and EMBRAPA, from Brazil) have driving sustainability impact assessment methodologies and their interaction with transdisciplinary and holistic principles, using as a base innovation concepts. This paper will display an overview on concepts and approaches about sustainability impact assessment, but looking from a transversal perspective, passing by an historical description on impact assessment and on concepts related to sustainable development and sustainability. We will search for unedited models of sustainability impact systems by converging holism, transdisciplinarity and sustainability. There are several methodologies but few demonstrate an integrated view with a transversal perspective. It is also imperceptible any concrete governance-managerial system for sustainability impact assessment, considering every stage of the process, from a strategic to an operational level, including, analyzing environment, economy and society dimensions as one unique perspective. Such as a complex and multidimensional sector of economy, agricultural research requires profiled sustainability impact assessment with an innovative and dynamic approach.

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“…Changes in the characteristic and pattern of weather due to climate change are expected to impact agricultural production (Antón et al 2013, Ewert et al 2015, Holzkämper et al 2015, Kim et al 2016, Ko, Ahuja 2014. This is due to the fact that agricultural production system is highly sensitive to short-term changes in weather and to seasonal, annual and longer term variations in climate (Challinor et al 2007, Holzkämper et al 2011, Ray et al 2015, Sivakumar,Hansen 2007.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Direct effects of climate change on agricultural crop production can be divided into two parts. First, climate change affects crop yield because changes in rainfall and temperature affect crop growth and development (Antón et al 2013, Ewert et al 2015, Holzkämper et al 2015, Islam et al 2012, Kim et al 2016, Ko,Ahuja 2014, Yan-Ling et al 2012. Second, changes on existing climate in an area can alter crop suitability in the region (Bonfante et al 2015, Chemura et al 2015, Jayathilaka et al 2012, Lane, Jarvis 2007, Ovalle-Rivera et al 2015, Ramirez-Cabral et al 2016, Wang et al 2015, Zabel et al 2014.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

Salvacion

2017

Quaestiones Geographicae

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SAlvAcion A.r., 2017. Mapping spatio-temporal changes in climatic suitability of corn in the Philippines under future climate condition. Quaestiones Geographiceae 36(1), Bogucki Wydownictwo Naukowe, Poznań, pp. 105-120, 11 figs, 5 tables.AbStrAct: This study assessed the spatio-temporal changes in corn climatic suitability in the Philippines under future climate condition. Using extracted climatic data from WorldClim database for the country under baseline and future climate condition, changes in corn suitability was assessed using fuzzy logic approach and published rainfall and temperature requirement of the crop. Based on the data, the large portion of the country will experience increase in monthly total rainfall (88%) while increase in monthly mean and minimum temperature under future climate condition is projected for the entire country. These increases in rainfall and temperature resulted in changes of corn climatic suitability in the country depending on the month and location. On the average, changes in rainfall resulted in reduction (8%) and improvement (6%) in corn suitability while increase in temperature resulted in 5% and 0.4% reduction and improvement, respectively.

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Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

Cited by 261 publications

References 243 publications

How Drought Affects Agricultural Insurance Policies: The Case of Italy

How Drought Affects Agricultural Insurance Policies: The Case of Italy

Sustainability Impact Assessment – An Overview with a Holistic and Transdisciplinary Perspective towards Agricultural Research

Mapping Spatio-Temporal Changes in Climatic Suitability of Corn in the Philippines under Future Climate Condition

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