Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

Leng, Guoyong; Huang, Maoyi

doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01599-2

Cited by 133 publications

(75 citation statements)

References 57 publications

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“…At the national level, we found no clear effect of high temperature on yield. More importantly, national level effects can be misleading if the underlying geographic distribution of the crop changes (Leng and Huang 2017). In China, the effect of high temperature was negative in the south and positive in the north.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Possible future climate change driven changes in the spatial distribution of crops have been modeled (Leemans and Solomon 1993, Hannah et al 2013, Shabani and Kotey 2016, but there has been little research on historical changes in crop distribution and climate and how these interact to affect crop yield (e.g. Leng andHuang 2017, Qiao et al 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate change and geographic shifts in rice production in China

Wang

Hijmans

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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Climate change can affect crop yield in a given location, and it can also affect where crops are grown. Most assessments of the effect of historical climate change on crop yield has been at the national level, ignoring possibly important subnational variation and climate change adaptation through changes in crop distribution. We analyzed the relationship between growing season temperature, rice yield, and the spatial distribution of rice production in China between 1949 and 2015. Since 1949, rice production in China has moved northwards. Because of this, country level average temperature for rice areas during the growing season was relatively stable, and colder than it would have been without the movement. Temperature has had a very small effect on rice yield at the country level of −0.05 t ha −1°C−1 . However, this masks important subnational variation. Increased temperatures were associated with an increase in rice yield (0-1.0 t ha −1°C−1 ) in northern provinces and a decrease (−0.6-0 t ha −1°C−1 ) in southern provinces of China. While the estimated overall effect of the northward movement on average rice yield in China was only 162 kg ha −1 , it does illustrate how crop movements can modify climate change effects and can be an emergent adaptation strategy.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change and geographic shifts in rice production in China

Wang

Hijmans

2019

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…Similarly, in the northeast region of China, global warming modeling forecasted that the extreme temperature increase (where temperature increases by 1.32 • C) would lead to a decrease in maize production by~35% in 2030 as compared to productivity in 2008 [72]. In the United States, global warming has resulted in an average 2.5% decrease in maize yield in the period from 1970 to 1999, and precipitation modeling reported that by the 2050s, corn yields are projected to decrease further by 20 to 50% depending on the current emission scenarios [73]. Water supply is also a vital factor for maize production.…”

Section: Maizementioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review

Jin

Vanga

Saxena

et al. 2018

Climate

246

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By the end of this century, the average global temperature is predicted to rise due to the increasing release of greenhouse gases (GHGs) into the atmosphere. This change in climate can reduce agricultural yields, resulting in food insecurity. However, agricultural activities are one of the major contributors of GHGs and lower yields can trigger increased activity to meet the demand for food, resulting in higher quantities of GHGs released into the atmosphere. In this paper, we discuss the growth requirements and greenhouse gas release potential of staple cereal crops and assess the impact of climate change on their yields. Potential solutions for minimizing the influence of climate change on crop productivity are discussed. These include breeding to obtain cereals that are more tolerant to conditions caused by climate change, increased production of these new cultivars, improved irrigation, and more effective use of fertilizers. Furthermore, different predictive models inferred that climate change would reduce production of major cereal crops, except for millets due to their ability to grow in variable climatic conditions, and in dry areas due to a strong root system. Moreover, millets are not resource-intensive crops and release fewer greenhouse gases compared to other cereals. Therefore, in addition to addressing food security, millets have an enormous potential use for reducing the impact of agriculture on global warming and should be grown on a global scale as an alternative to major cereals and grains.

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“…Empirical models (both process-based simulation models and statistical models) have been used to assess the potential impacts of weather on crop yields [19]. For example, a comprehensive data-driven analysis is developed to investigate crop pattern between counties in regulating corn yield response to weather change at the state level of U.S [20]. The issue of land use change and agricultural crop acreage response due to economic and biophysical factors is well documented focusing on Northern Great Plains agriculture [21,22].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather and Crop Management Impact on Crop Yield Variability

Parvez¹,

Chowdhury

2020

Agriculture and Food Sciences Research

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This research is primarily designed to examine crop yield variation due to change in weather pattern and crop management activities by exploring a comprehensive list of factors (e.g. environmental, economic etc.). Given that existing literature indicates significant effects when farmland value is regressed on weather variables, a natural question is to ask whether major agricultural crop yields responds to change in historical weather pattern. To answer this question, this study relies on a state level panel dataset including agricultural and high-resolution weather data covering the period 1997-2018. Using a Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) approach, this study estimates how crop spatial distribution patterns have impacted crop yield variation in response to weather in United States Greater Midwest region. Key findings indicate that changes in crop management activities correspond closely to estimate of both crop price and weather effects. Additionally, corn yield response to weather change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern, with distinct impacts on the magnitude and even the direction at the state level. Further, revenue of corn, soybeans, wheat and their respective lagged yields have positive and significant effect to respective crop yields. Finally, a major crop yield does vary across region due to variation of crop prices, precipitation and temperature. These findings have useful implications for agriculture sector on how historical weather trends have affected crop yield and distribution pattern.

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Crop yield response to climate change varies with crop spatial distribution pattern

Cited by 133 publications

References 57 publications

Climate change and geographic shifts in rice production in China

Climate change and geographic shifts in rice production in China

Effect of Climate Change on the Yield of Cereal Crops: A Review

Weather and Crop Management Impact on Crop Yield Variability

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