Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation

Romero, Antonio Arce; Monterroso-Rivas, Alejandro Ismael; Díaz, Jesús David Gómez; Mendoza, Miguel Ángel Palacios; Salas, Elda Nohemí Navarro; Blanco, Jorge López; Álvarez, Ana Cecilia Conde

doi:10.20937/atm.52430

Cited by 10 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…A large increment in potential evapotranspiration has also been observed, as a result of higher temperatures, which lead to increasingly drier conditions due to a reduction of soil moisture and water availability (Livertman and O'Brien, 1991). Both the continuous increment in dryness and extreme droughts have strong negative impacts on grain production (Arce et al, 2020), crop yields (Murray-Tortarolo et al, 2018) and livestock populations (Murray-Tortarolo and Jaramillo, 2019), ultimately impacting the society and causing increase migration to the USA (Feng et al, 2013).…”

Section: Short Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seven decades of climate change across Mexico

Murray‐Tortarolo

2021

ATM

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Due to its geographical location, Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change. However, we currently ignore the exact magnitude and particularities of past climate change in the Mexican territory and are missing a country-level spatially explicit analysis based on observed data. To fill this gap, I analyzed how temperature, precipitation and the water balance of Mexico changed over 1951-2017 at interannual and seasonal scales. My results show a clear national increment in temperature (+0.71 ºC) but no modification in annual mean precipitation. At the seasonal scale, the wet season (June-November) had higher rainfall (+31 mm) and no change was detectable on the dry season (December-May). However, when the full water balance was seasonally accounted for (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration), the trend resulted in a wetter wet season and a much drier dry season across the country. Regionally, seasonal changes in water balance were larger in the area surrounding the Gulf of Mexico and positive in the Yucatan Peninsula and the central highlands. My results help explaining the recent increase in drought, storms and intense rainfall across Mexico and suggest even more extreme seasonal weather in the future if climate change exacerbates.

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Section: Short Contributionsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Seven decades of climate change across Mexico

Murray‐Tortarolo

2021

ATM

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“…The rich diversity of Mexican landrace maize is closely tied to local adaptation. Yet, this same specialization places these varieties at risk from future climate change ( Mercer and Perales 2010 ; Bellon et al 2011 ; Romero et al 2020 ). In a study to project landrace distribution under different climate change scenarios, PT was identified as the most vulnerable landrace ( Ureta et al 2012 ), although, as the authors note, models based on current distribution and climate do not take into account the full range of environmental, biotic, and cultural factors that impact diversity and distribution.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A B73×Palomero Toluqueño mapping population reveals local adaptation in Mexican highland maize

Perez-Limon

Cintora-Martinez

et al. 2022

G3 Genes|Genomes|Genetics

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Generations of farmer selection in the central Mexican highlands have produced unique maize varieties adapted to the challenges of the local environment. In addition to possessing great agronomic and cultural value, Mexican highland maize represents a good system for the study of local adaptation and acquisition of adaptive phenotypes under cultivation. In this study we characterize a recombinant inbred line population derived from the B73 reference line and the Mexican highland maize variety Palomero Toluqueño. B73 and Palomero Toluqueño showed classic rank-changing differences in performance between lowland and highland field sites, indicative of local adaptation. Quantitative trait mapping identified genomic regions linked to effects on yield components that were conditionally expressed depending on the environment. For the principal genomic regions associated with ear weight and total kernel number, the Palomero Toluqueño allele conferred an advantage specifically in the highland site, consistent with local adaptation. We identified Palomero Toluqueño alleles associated with expression of characteristic highland traits, including reduced tassel branching, increased sheath pigmentation and the presence of sheath macrohairs. The oligogenic architecture of these three morphological traits supports their role in adaptation, suggesting they have arisen from consistent directional selection acting at distinct points across the genome. We discuss these results in the context of the origin of phenotypic novelty during selection, commenting on the role of de novo mutation and the acquisition of adaptive variation by gene flow from endemic wild relatives.

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“…The rich diversity of Mexican landrace maize is closely tied to local adaptation. Yet, this same specialization places these varieties at risk from future climate change (Mercer & Perales, 2010) (Bellon et al, 2011) (Romero et al, 2020. In a study to project landrace distribution under different climate change scenarios, PT was the landrace identified as the most vulnerable (Ureta et al, 2012), although, as the authors note, models based on current distribution and climate do not take into account the full range of environmental, biotic and cultural factors that impact diversity and distribution.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A B73 x Palomero Toluqueño mapping population reveals local adaptation in Mexican highland maize

Perez-Limon

Cintora-Martinez

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Generations of farmer selection have produced a unique collection of traditional maize varieties adapted to the environmental challenges of the central Mexican highlands. In addition to agronomic and cultural value, Mexican highland maize represents a good system for the study of local adaptation and acquisition of adaptive phenotypes under cultivation. In this study, we characterized a recombinant inbred line population derived from the cross of the B73 reference line and the Mexican highland maize variety Palomero Toluqueo. Evaluation over multiple years in lowland and highland field sites in Mexico identified genomic regions linked to yield components and putatively adaptive morphological traits. A region on chromosome 7 associated with ear weight showed antagonistic allelic effects in lowland and highland fields, suggesting a trade-off consistent with local adaptation. We identified several alleles of highland origin associated with characteristic highland traits, including reduced tassel branching, increased stem pigmentation and the presence of stem macrohairs. The oligogenic architecture of characteristic morphological traits supports their role in adaptation, suggesting they have arisen from consistent directional selection acting at distinct points across the genome. We discuss these results in the context of the origin of phenotypic novelty during selection, commenting on the role of de novo mutation and the acquisition of adaptive variation by gene flow from endemic wild relatives.

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Crop yield simulations in Mexican agriculture for climate change adaptation

Cited by 10 publications

References 17 publications

Seven decades of climate change across Mexico

Seven decades of climate change across Mexico

A B73×Palomero Toluqueño mapping population reveals local adaptation in Mexican highland maize

A B73 x Palomero Toluqueño mapping population reveals local adaptation in Mexican highland maize

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