Cross-correlations of a coupled ensemble hydrodynamic and water quality forecast 

Abstract

<p>Growing food, renewable energy demand and nature restoration have led to an increasing competition for space. European seas are considered as an opportunity for the joint use of aquaculture, renewable energy, but also to promote nature restoration. The concept of multi-use and co-location of marine activities was introduced to promote a sustainable use of European waters. Deltares is leading the Europe Horizon2020 funded UNITED project that aims to demonstrate pilots of multi-use, consequently identify synergies and bottlenecks. Offshore aquaculture greatly benefits from real-time operational forecasting capabilities since in-situ observations and frequent offshore expeditions are expensive. The Dutch Continental Shelf Model (DCSM) is a state-of-the-art hydrodynamic and water quality model developed by Deltares based on the Delft3D-FM software. This model has been validated for hydrodynamic and water quality applications on a wide spatial and temporal scale within the Dutch Continental Shelf. However, model bias is expected for the prediction of oyster and seaweed growth. Model bias can be region-specific and therefore we focus on one of the UNITED pilots, 50 km off the Belgian coast. Observations are often scarce but have proven to be effective for assimilation with water quality model applications in some cases. The aim of this research is to identify model bias and cross-correlation between the coupled ensemble modules to inform the implementation of an Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) for the assimilation of observations.</p>