2023
DOI: 10.1002/for.2959
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Cross‐sectional return dispersion and stock market volatility: Evidence from high‐frequency data

Abstract: This paper investigates whether the cross‐sectional variance (CSV) of stock returns and its asymmetric components contain incremental information to predict stock market volatility under a high‐frequency, heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model framework. We present novel evidence that CSV is a powerful predictor of future realized volatility, both in‐ and out‐of‐sample, even after controlling for the well‐established predictors obtained from intraday data. Further analysis suggests that distinguishing betwee… Show more

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Cited by 3 publications
(2 citation statements)
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“…To evaluate the predictive performance of the regression model, we choose four different criteria, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), median absolute error (MdE), and maximum absolute error (MAxE). These criteria are commonly used indicators for assessing the predictive performance of regression models (Niu et al, 2023;Sun et al, 2023;Yang et al, 2023). The specific formulas for calculating these criteria are shown below:…”
Section: Evaluation Metricsmentioning
confidence: 99%
See 1 more Smart Citation
“…To evaluate the predictive performance of the regression model, we choose four different criteria, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), median absolute error (MdE), and maximum absolute error (MAxE). These criteria are commonly used indicators for assessing the predictive performance of regression models (Niu et al, 2023;Sun et al, 2023;Yang et al, 2023). The specific formulas for calculating these criteria are shown below:…”
Section: Evaluation Metricsmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…To evaluate the predictive performance of the regression model, we choose four different criteria, including root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), median absolute error (MdE), and maximum absolute error (MAxE). These criteria are commonly used indicators for assessing the predictive performance of regression models (Niu et al, 2023; Sun et al, 2023; Yang et al, 2023). The specific formulas for calculating these criteria are shown below: 1Ni=1NRitrueR̂i2, italicMAEgoodbreak=1Ni=1N||Rigoodbreak−Rtruêi, italicMdEgoodbreak=median(){}Rigoodbreak−Rtruêii=1N, italicMAxEgoodbreak=max()||Rigoodbreak−Rtruêii=1N, where N denotes the number of samples and Ri and Rtruêi indicate the true value and predicted value, respectively.…”
Section: Empirical Models and Datamentioning
confidence: 99%