Cross-sectoral impacts of the 2018–2019 Central European drought and climate resilience in the German part of the Elbe River basin

Abstract

The 2018–2019 Central European drought was probably the most extreme in Germany since the early sixteenth century. We assess the multiple consequences of the drought for natural systems, the economy and human health in the German part of the Elbe River basin, an area of 97,175 km2 including the cities of Berlin and Hamburg and contributing about 18% to the German GDP. We employ meteorological, hydrological and socio-economic data to build a comprehensive picture of the drought severity, its multiple effects and cross-sectoral consequences in the basin. Time series of different drought indices illustrate the severity of the 2018–2019 drought and how it progressed from meteorological water deficits via soil water depletion towards low groundwater levels and river runoff, and losses in vegetation productivity. The event resulted in severe production losses in agriculture (minus 20–40% for staple crops) and forestry (especially through forced logging of damaged wood: 25.1 million tons in 2018–2020 compared to only 3.4 million tons in 2015–2017), while other economic sectors remained largely unaffected. However, there is no guarantee that this socio-economic stability will be sustained in future drought events; this is discussed in the light of 2022, another dry year holding the potential for a compound crisis. Given the increased probability for more intense and long-lasting droughts in most parts of Europe, this example of actual cross-sectoral drought impacts will be relevant for drought awareness and preparation planning in other regions.

Advanced Biotechnological Interventions in Mitigating Drought Stress in Plants

“…Moreover, the issue of drought has cross-sectoral implications, influencing various societal aspects such as agriculture, water resources, and even human migration, as discussed by Conradt et al [ 12 ]. The far-reaching consequences of drought are not limited to economic sectors but also initiate dynamic mechanisms with socio-environmental consequences, impacting the sustainability of affected areas [ 4 ].…”

Unified in diversity: Unravelling emerging knowledge on drought impact cascades via participatory modeling

“…Responding to this need, scholars are investigating the propagation of droughts' impacts and how they interact with society (12,13). Typically, qualitative descriptions and narrative accounts based on observed data are employed to depict how the impacts unfold (14). For example, (13) conducted a literature review, examining scientific articles to identify evidence of cascading consequences of droughts in 8 case studies.…”

“…license EarthArXiv (such as feedback loops or other complex structures) of CCI that emerges when pooling diverse stakeholder perspectives. The participatory process took place in a case study on the German federal state of Thuringia, a region recently affected by severe drought conditions with far-reaching consequences across multiple sectors (14,31). This area experienced drastic forest dieback in 2019 and 2020, during which over a third of all trees were damaged (14).…”

“…The participatory process took place in a case study on the German federal state of Thuringia, a region recently affected by severe drought conditions with far-reaching consequences across multiple sectors (14,31). This area experienced drastic forest dieback in 2019 and 2020, during which over a third of all trees were damaged (14). Recent drought events (e.g.…”

Vegetation Stress Monitor—Assessment of Drought and Temperature-Related Effects on Vegetation in Germany Analyzing MODIS Time Series over 23 Years

“…Droughts pose a major threat to ecosystems and food production. They can have strong regional impacts on hydrology, soil moisture, land CO 2 uptake, vegetation condition, crop production and forestry [1][2][3][4][5][6][7]. For Central Europe, an increase in warm-season droughts has been observed over the past 15 years [8], and it is expected that with accelerating climate change, droughts will further increase in terms of spatial extent, duration and socioeconomic impacts [9][10][11][12].…”