Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African Swine Fever

Vos, C.J. de; Taylor, Rachel A.; Simons, Robin; Roberts, Helen; Hultén, C.; Koeijer, A.A. de; Lyytikäinen, Tapani; Napp, Sebastián; Boklund, Anette; Petie, Ronald; Sörén, Kaisa; Swanenburg, M.; Comin, Arianna; Seppä-Lassila, Leena; Cabral, Maria

doi:10.3389/fvets.2020.00056

Cited by 15 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 42 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The assessment of the risk of RVF introduction based on the results of this model aligns with the results of qualitative assessments previously published [15]. Furthermore, this model complements nicely with other previously developed generic risk models (i.e., MINTRISK [11,18]. It is also relevant to the recently published assessment of effectiveness of surveillance and control measures in the EU by the European Food Safety Authority [19].…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Quantitative Assessment of the Entry through Mechanical Transport in Aircraft of Rift Valley Fever Virus-Infected Mosquitoes into Previously Unaffected Areas

Filippitzi

Saegerman

2021

Pathogens

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

(1): Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is a zoonotic disease of significant international health concern and considered as an emerging risk to Europe, where no RVF outbreaks in humans or animals have been reported so far. (2): Using a stochastic approach, we estimated the risk of RVF virus (RVFV) introduction during the period of May to October (the period when mosquito populations, including RVFV potential vectors, are present in European countries), into previously unaffected areas (e.g., United Kingdom, UK) via virus-carrying vectors traveling in commercial aircraft from RVF-affected countries (e.g., East Africa); (3): On average N = 68 (95% CI: 0–337), RVF-virus-infected mosquitoes are estimated to be mechanically transported by planes (with N = 0 as most likely), in direct flights from RVF-affected East African countries to the UK, between May and October. This estimate is considered as low but not negligible. The model developed should be easily scaled up to other European countries by amending appropriately country-specific variables (e.g., number of flights between countries) in order to map the areas/airports of higher risk and inform risk management per country accordingly and to adopt risk-mitigation measures.

show abstract

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 77%

Quantitative Assessment of the Entry through Mechanical Transport in Aircraft of Rift Valley Fever Virus-Infected Mosquitoes into Previously Unaffected Areas

Filippitzi

Saegerman

2021

Pathogens

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In particular, the introduction of ASF via wild boar movement, also across borders, has to be taken into account [ 163 , 168 ]. Several models have therefore been established that address the risk of ASF introduction into unaffected areas through trade and wild boar movements using statistical data fitting approaches [ 165 , 169 ].…”

Section: Epidemiologymentioning

confidence: 99%

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe—A Review

Sauter‐Louis

Conraths

Probst

et al. 2021

Viruses

120

114

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The introduction of genotype II African swine fever (ASF) virus, presumably from Africa into Georgia in 2007, and its continuous spread through Europe and Asia as a panzootic disease of suids, continues to have a huge socio-economic impact. ASF is characterized by hemorrhagic fever leading to a high case/fatality ratio in pigs. In Europe, wild boar are especially affected. This review summarizes the currently available knowledge on ASF in wild boar in Europe. The current ASF panzootic is characterized by self-sustaining cycles of infection in the wild boar population. Spill-over and spill-back events occur from wild boar to domestic pigs and vice versa. The social structure of wild boar populations and the spatial behavior of the animals, a variety of ASF virus (ASFV) transmission mechanisms and persistence in the environment complicate the modeling of the disease. Control measures focus on the detection and removal of wild boar carcasses, in which ASFV can remain infectious for months. Further measures include the reduction in wild boar density and the limitation of wild boar movements through fences. Using these measures, the Czech Republic and Belgium succeeded in eliminating ASF in their territories, while the disease spread in others. So far, no vaccine is available to protect wild boar or domestic pigs reliably against ASF.

show abstract

“…MINTRISK is one of the most complete generic risk assessment tools for disease introductions, not only addressing the probabilities of entry and exposure, but also the impact of disease over a longer period. Most generic tools in the veterinary field evaluate the introduction risk up till entry [78,79] or first infection in a new area [80][81][82], although some also address the epidemiological consequences [19,77,83]. MINTRISK, on the other hand, not only assesses the epidemiological consequences, but also the economic, socio-ethical and environmental impact.…”

Section: Assets Of Mintriskmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

et al. 2021

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

To evaluate and compare the risk of emerging vector-borne diseases (VBDs), a Model for INTegrated RISK assessment, MINTRISK, was developed to assess the introduction risk of VBDs for new regions in an objective, transparent and repeatable manner. MINTRISK is a web-based calculation tool, that provides semi-quantitative risk scores that can be used for prioritization purposes. Input into MINTRISK is entered by answering questions regarding entry, transmission, establishment, spread, persistence and impact of a selected VBD. Answers can be chosen from qualitative answer categories with accompanying quantitative explanation to ensure consistent answering. The quantitative information is subsequently used as input for the model calculations to estimate the risk for each individual step in the model and for the summarizing output values (rate of introduction; epidemic size; overall risk). The risk assessor can indicate his uncertainty on each answer, and this is accounted for by Monte Carlo simulation. MINTRISK was used to assess the risk of four VBDs (African horse sickness, epizootic haemorrhagic disease, Rift Valley fever, and West Nile fever) for the Netherlands with the aim to prioritise these diseases for preparedness. Results indicated that the overall risk estimate was very high for all evaluated diseases but epizootic haemorrhagic disease. Uncertainty intervals were, however, wide limiting the options for ranking of the diseases. Risk profiles of the VBDs differed. Whereas all diseases were estimated to have a very high economic impact once introduced, the estimated introduction rates differed from low for Rift Valley fever and epizootic haemorrhagic disease to moderate for African horse sickness and very high for West Nile fever. Entry of infected mosquitoes on board of aircraft was deemed the most likely route of introduction for West Nile fever into the Netherlands, followed by entry of infected migratory birds.

show abstract

Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African Swine Fever

Cited by 15 publications

References 42 publications

Quantitative Assessment of the Entry through Mechanical Transport in Aircraft of Rift Valley Fever Virus-Infected Mosquitoes into Previously Unaffected Areas

Quantitative Assessment of the Entry through Mechanical Transport in Aircraft of Rift Valley Fever Virus-Infected Mosquitoes into Previously Unaffected Areas

African Swine Fever in Wild Boar in Europe—A Review

Assessing the introduction risk of vector-borne animal diseases for the Netherlands using MINTRISK: A Model for INTegrated RISK assessment

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About