Crossing thresholds: The use of spatial analysis to identify intensification of the Colombian conflict

Abstract

This research note uses exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) to understand regional conflict escalation. This study suggests rethinking the use of strict thresholds of conflict in studies of civil war, given that hot spots are predictors of conflict escalation. In the Colombian case, human rights violations hot spots are predictors of higher intensity conflict escalation.

Mapping Colombian people's positions regarding the acceptability of political amnesties

“…This agreement put an end to a 60‐year‐old armed conflict that claimed more than 1,725,150 victims and directly affected 7,245,562 known victims (Registro Único de Victimas, 2020). During the conflict, a wide variety of violent events took place: kidnappings, massacres, selective assassinations, forced disappearances, sexual assaults, forced displacements, and the recruitment of minors (López López et al, 2018; López López, León Rincón, Pineda Marín, & Mullet, 2018; López‐López, Pineda Marín, Murcia León, Perilla Garzón, & Mullet, 2012; Palao Mendizabal, Holmes, Callenes, & Cardenas, 2019). Several armed groups were involved: illegal (paramilitaries, guerrillas, criminal gangs, and drug traffickers) and legal (military and police).…”