Cue-Taking, Satisficing, or Both? Quasi-experimental Evidence for Ballot Position Effects

Abstract

Ballot position effects have been documented across a variety of political and electoral systems. In general, knowledge of the underlying mechanisms is limited. There is also little research on such effects in preferential-list PR systems, in which parties typically present ranked lists and thus signaling is important. This study addresses both gaps. Theoretically, we formalize four models of voter decision-making: pure appeal-based utility maximization, implying no position effects; rank-taking, where voters take cues from ballot position per se; satisficing, where choice is a function of appeal, but voters consider the options in the order of their appearance; and a hybrid "satisficing-with-rank-taking" variant. From these, we derive differential observable implications. Empirically, we exploit a quasi-experiment, created by the mixed-member electoral system that is used in the state of Bavaria, Germany. Particular electoral rules induce variation in both the observed rank and the set of competitors, and allow for estimating effects at all ranks. We find clear evidence for substantial position effects, which are strongest near the top, but discernible even for the 15th list position. In addition, a candidate's vote increases when the average appeal of higher-placed (but not that of lower-placed) competitors is lower. Overall, the evidence is most compatible with the hybrid satisficing-with rank-taking model. Ballot position thus affects both judgment and choice of candidates.

Ballot position effects in open-list PR systems: the moderating impact of postal voting

“…Lutz (2010), for example, analyzes the case of Switzerland and demonstrates a significant influence of the positioning of candidates on the ballot paper on the receipt of preferential votes. Faas and Schoen (2006) as well as Däubler and Rudolph (2018) analyze Bavarian regional elections in Germany and demonstrate that strong ballot position effects exist in these cases. Moreover, Marcinkiewicz (2014) and Marcinkiewicz and Stegmaier (2015) focus on Polish and Czech elections.…”

“…What is more, all of these studies agree that it is particularly the first ballot position which benefits from the list order. At lower ballot positions, the effect becomes much weaker or vanishes completely (e.g., Däubler and Rudolph 2018).…”

“…Put differently, even if voters do not simply vote for top-placed candidates due to the ballot position, then we would probably still observe a correlation between list placement and electoral success as the topplaced candidates are more likely to attract a large number of preference votes. Therefore, studies which rely on natural experiments are particularly important as they demonstrate that ballot position effects still occur and are also very strong even when candidate quality and list placement are not correlated (Faas and Schoen 2006;Blom-Hansen et al 2016;Däubler and Rudolph 2018).…”

“…It is also assumed that open-list PR systems increase voters' ability to hold their representatives accountable (Carey and Shugart 1995;Tavits 2010;Crisp et al 2013). While these aspects of open-list PR systems seem desirable, several studies also demonstrate that voters tend to cast rather uninformed votes under open-list PR. In various open-list PR elections strong ballot position effects have been observed (e.g., Faas and Schoen 2006;Lutz 2010;Marcinkiewicz 2014;Marcinkiewicz and Stegmaier 2015;Blom-Hansen et al 2016;Däubler and Rudolph 2018). Ballot position effects describe the observation that candidates ranked higher on the ballot paper tend to receive more votes than candidates ranked lower on the ballot paper.…”

“…While some argue that ballot position effects assist voters in selecting a candidate (Marcinkiewicz 2014), it can also be argued that voters' tendency to rely on information shortcuts contrasts with the assumption that voters will select candidates which best reflect their policy preferences Redlawsk 2001, 2006). To put it bluntly, voters who rely on the ballot position cue do not necessarily cast a vote with the intention of holding a certain candidate accountable or because this candidate best reflects their policy preferences; voters often do so because they lack information about the candidates running for election and relying instead on the party-defined list order is the best they can do (Däubler and Rudolph 2018). Therefore, it is relevant to understand in which contexts voters tend to rely on information shortcuts such as the ballot position cue.…”