Emerging theory and empirical work suggest that the 'Bruce Effect', or the increase in spontaneous abortion observed in non-human species when environments become threatening to offspring survival, may also appear in humans. We argue that, if it does, the effect would appear in the odds of twins among male and female live births. We test the hypothesis, implied by our argument, that the odds of a twin among male infants in Norway fell below, while those among females rose above, expected levels among birth cohorts in gestation in July 2011 when a deranged man murdered 77 Norwegians, including many youths. Results support the hypothesis and imply that the Bruce Effect operates in women to autonomically raise the standard of fetal fitness necessary to extend the gestation of twins. This circumstance has implications for using twins to estimate the relative contributions of genes and environment to human responses to exogenous stimuli.
Keywords: selection in utero, twins, evolution, Bruce EffectOn July 22, 2011, a deranged man killed eight persons in a bomb attack in Oslo and, 2 hours later, began shooting children and staff at a youth camp on an island near the city. Over the ensuing 90 minutes he killed 69 staff and young people. After the initial killings on the island, the perpetrator reportedly waited for survivors to attempt escape so that he could target them as they swam. Police could not reach the island when the shooting began due to the lack of helicopters and vessels. Hundreds of other people were injured in the attacks, scores of them seriously.The Oslo Massacre elicited strong emotional responses, including fear, heightened threat perception, and grief in the general population (Nordanger et al., 2013;Thoresen et al., 2012). Indeed, one in four Norwegians reportedly knew someone bereaved by the attacks (Thoresen et al., 2012). Whether grief arose solely among those closely tied to the deceased or in the larger population, which included witnesses to the pain of those with close ties, the fraction of Norwegians grieving the death of their young surely reached very high levels in late summer of 2011.Dating at least to the work of Bruce (1959), researchers have noted that in several non-human species, environmental threats to the survival of young, proximate conspecifics appear to induce spontaneous abortion in gravid females, both under laboratory conditions and in the wild (Becker & Hurst, 2008;Cheney & Seyfarth, 2009;Labov, 1981;Roberts et al., 2012;Rulicke et al., 2006). Labov (1981) infers that this 'Bruce Effect' functions as an adaptive strategy to limit female investment in offspring likely to die in environments prevailing at birth. In non-human animals, the Bruce Effect may provide a female counterstrategy to infanticide, or may be an adaptive strategy to limit investment in gestations that face a high risk of death (Labov, 1981). Mechanisms associated with the Bruce Effect likely include the endocrine stress response (Beehner et al., 2005;Cheney & Seyfarth, 2009), suggesting that the Bruce Eff...