In this paper, we proposed a two-stage hybrid reliability analysis framework based on the surrogate model, which combines the first-order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation with a doubly-weighted moving least squares (DWMLS) method. The first stage consists of constructing a surrogate model based on DWMLS. The weight system of DWMLS considers not only the normal weight factor of moving least squares, but also the distance from the most probable failure point (MPFP), which accounts for reliability problems. An adaptive experimental design scheme is proposed, during which the MPFP is progressively updated. The approximate values and sensitivity information of DWMLS are chosen to determine the number and location of the experimental design points in the next iteration, until a convergence criterion is satisfied. In the second stage, MCS on the surrogate model is then used to calculate the probability of failure. The proposed method is applied to five benchmark examples to validate its accuracy and efficiency. Results show that the proposed surrogate model with DWMLS can estimate the failure probability accurately, while requiring fewer original model simulations.
KeywordsDoubly weighted moving least squares · Surrogate model · Two-stage hybrid method · Adaptive experimental design · Structural reliability analysis · Latin hypercube design Nomenclature n number of input random variables N number of experimental points x vector of input random variables β reliability index β H L reliability index by Hasofer-Lind algorithm μ mean σ standard deviation g(X) limit state function g(X) approximate limit state function/ response surface function X add new added experimental points in any iteration MLS moving least square DWMLS doubly weighted moving least square SVR support vector regression ANN artificial neural networks MPFP most probable failure point MCS Monte Carlo Simulation FORM first order reliability method SORM second order reliability method H-L Hasofer-Lind algorithm RSM response surface method LHD Latin hypercube design FEA finite element analysis CFD computational fluid dynamics COV coefficient of variation UDR Univariate Dimension-Reduction MPP-UDR Most probable point based UDR SGI Sparse Grid Interpolation 70 J. Li et al.