“…Confounding the analysis of the impact of the TPS was the advent of the Asian financial crisis (AFC), this beginning in the third quarter of 1997 (Tsang and Ma 2002). We expect that increased uncertainty about the HK-US dollar link would discourage purchase of HK dollar denominated assets, particularly homes, and thus reduce turnover.…”
“…Confounding the analysis of the impact of the TPS was the advent of the Asian financial crisis (AFC), this beginning in the third quarter of 1997 (Tsang and Ma 2002). We expect that increased uncertainty about the HK-US dollar link would discourage purchase of HK dollar denominated assets, particularly homes, and thus reduce turnover.…”
“…This will maintain the domestic money market in equilibrium. On the other hand, equation (6) shows that a rise in domestic interest rate will attract the foreign capital inflow, that is the "specie-flow" mechanism (Tsang and Ma, 2002). Thus the foreign exchange reserve is built up to alleviate the pressure of exchange rate devaluation.…”
Section: Occurrence Of the Crisis And Speculative Attackmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…(1996) who endogenized the government exchange rate policy with an “escape clause.” The government has a trade‐off between the fixed exchange rate and domestic macroeconomic objectives (Ma and Kanas, 2000). McKinnon and Pill (1999), Chang and Velasco (2001), Tsang and Ma (2002), and Ma et al. (2007) are the representative third‐generation models cast in the background of the Asian financial crisis.…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…The government has a trade-off between the fixed exchange rate and domestic macroeconomic objectives (Ma and Kanas, 2000). McKinnon and Pill (1999), Chang and Velasco (2001), Tsang and Ma (2002), and Ma et al (2007) are the representative third-generation models cast in the background of the Asian financial crisis. Following Diamond and Dybvig (1983), these models put an emphasis on the fragility of the domestic financial system and premature financial liberalization as the causes of currency crisis.…”
A simple monetary model is built to illustrate that the pegged exchange rate system will collapse under an unstable external environment via the balance sheet contagion and the "boiling frog" effect, even if the domestic policy and the fundamentals are sound. If agents anticipate this happening, a speculative attack may still occur. This result is different from that of the first-generation currency crisis model, where the inconsistent domestic policy brings in the collapse of the peg. The policy options to defend the peg in the author's model depend on the nature of the shock. Effective capital control can only be implemented for capital outflow shock. Capital account deregulation is more stabilizing under a current account deficit shock, however. This paper also distinguishes the effect of capital mobility with that of the asset substitutability, as they have completely different impacts on the peg. Copyright � 2008 The Author. Journal compilation � 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
“…However, one major difference between these two economies is their exchange rate policy. In fact, since October 1983, the date when Hong Kong has adopted a fixed exchange rate arrangement, the two economies experience opposite exchange rate regimes (see, inter alia, Latter, 1993;Cheung, 1998;Tsang and Ma, 2002;Cheung and Yuen, 2002; and the references therein). Thus, Hong Kong and Singapore provide us with an ideal setting to test, from a new perspective, the familiar 'impossible trinity' textbook proposition, i.e.…”
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