Current and Future Distribution of Five Timber Forest Species in Amazonas, Northeast Peru: Contributions towards a Restoration Strategy

Abstract

Forest and land degradation is a serious problem worldwide and the Peruvian National Map of Degraded Areas indicates that 13.78% (177,592.82 km2) of the country’s territory is degraded. Forest plantations can be a restoration strategy, while conserving economically important species affected by climate change and providing forestry material for markets. This study modelled the species distribution under current conditions and climate change scenarios of five Timber Forest Species (TFS) in the Amazonas Department, northeastern Peru. Modelling was conducted with Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) using 26 environmental variables. Of the total distribution under current conditions of Cedrelinga cateniformis, Ceiba pentandra, Apuleia leiocarpa, Cariniana decandra and Cedrela montana, 34.64% (2985.51 km2), 37.96% (2155.86 km2), 35.34% (2132.57 km2), 33.30% (1848.51 km2), and 35.81% (6125.44 km2), respectively, correspond to degraded areas and, therefore, there is restoration potential with these species. By 2050 and 2070, all TFS are projected to change their distribution compared to their current ranges, regardless of whether it will be an expansion and/or a contraction. Consequently, this methodology is intended to guide the economic and ecological success of forest plantations in reducing areas degraded by deforestation or similar activities.

Distribution Models of Timber Species for Forest Conservation and Restoration in the Andean-Amazonian Landscape, North of Peru

“…We adapted the methodologies proposed by OSINFOR [43] and Hengl et al [44] and applied by Rojas et al [45] to assess the biogeographical distribution of the ten forest timber species. The detailed methodological framework adopted by this study is shown in Figure 2.…”

“…m 3 (r)) ( Table 1; Supplementary Table S1). Of these 10 species, five were evaluated by Rojas et al [45] as being the most exploited in 2018. However, in this study, in addition to the restoration approach, they were analyzed under a system of conservation and coexistence among a greater number of species.…”

Biogeographic Distribution of <em>Cedrela </em>spp. Genus in Peru Using MaxEnt Modeling: A Conservation Approach <sup>†</sup>

“…This study showed that MaxEnt based SDM tools that will allow the identification and prediction of geographic spaces with edaphoclimatic, topographic, equal or similar characteristics of the presence data [46]. Previous studies have used MaxEnt, this being the most accepted [47] and was related to the distribution of timber species at the regional [21,22], national [48][49][50] level and the identification of niches ecological for C. odorata in Peru [51].…”

“…We have used the logistic output format to obtain the model of the 10 species evaluated, by generating a raster of continuous values in a range from 0 to 1. The raster obtained was reclassified into four ranges: (1) "High potential" habitat (> 0.6), (2) "moderate" habitat (0.4-0.6), (3) "low" habitat (0.2-0.4) and ( 4) "no potential" habitat (<0.2) [21,22,25,44].…”

“…and allow a more effective and generous support for conservation, biogeography, evolution and climate change actions [16][17][18][19][20]. The SDMs have made it possible to identify the distribution of timber forest species on a regional scale [21,22], conservation of endemic species [23], wildlife [24,25], in order to intervene in areas to protect and identify the distribution of tree species in danger of extinction [26,27]. Among the SDMs, the maximum entropy algorithm (MaxEnt) [28], has been used to carry out the distribution of species under current and future conditions [29,30].…”