Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Elgowainy, Amgad; Han, Jeongwoo; Ward, Jacob; Joseck, Fred; Gohlke, David; Lindauer, Alicia; Ramsden, T.; Biddy, Mary J.; Alexander, Marcus; Barnhart, Steven; Sutherland, Ian; Verduzco, Laura; Wallington, Timothy J.

doi:10.1021/acs.est.7b06006

Cited by 86 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…In separate literature, researchers have assessed refueling station costs (34) and hydrogen delivery pathways (35). Furthermore, battery electric vehicles could cost less than FCEVs on a per mile basis, depending on trends in capital and fuel costs (36). Our study identifies the greatest challenges to reducing PEMFC production costs.…”

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles

Whiston

Azevedo

Litster

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

139

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Despite decades of development, proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) still lack wide market acceptance in vehicles. To understand the expected trajectories of PEMFC attributes that influence adoption, we conducted an expert elicitation assessment of the current and expected future cost and performance of automotive PEMFCs. We elicited 39 experts’ assessments of PEMFC system cost, stack durability, and stack power density under a hypothetical, large-scale production scenario. Experts assessed the median 2017 automotive cost to be $75/kW, stack durability to be 4,000 hours, and stack power density to be 2.5 kW/L. However, experts ranged widely in their assessments. Experts’ 2017 best cost assessments ranged from $40 to $500/kW, durability assessments ranged from 1,200 to 12,000 hours, and power density assessments ranged from 0.5 to 4 kW/L. Most respondents expected the 2020 cost to fall short of the 2020 target of the US Department of Energy (DOE). However, most respondents anticipated that the DOE’s ultimate target of $30/kW would be met by 2050 and a power density of 3 kW/L would be achieved by 2035. Fifteen experts thought that the DOE’s ultimate durability target of 8,000 hours would be met by 2050. In general, experts identified high Pt group metal loading as the most significant barrier to reducing cost. Recommended research and development (R&D) funding was allocated to “catalysts and electrodes,” followed in decreasing amount by “fuel cell performance and durability,” “membranes and electrolytes,” and “testing and technical assessment.” Our results could be used to inform public and private R&D decisions and technology roadmaps.

show abstract

Section: Significancementioning

confidence: 99%

Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles

Whiston

Azevedo

Litster

et al. 2019

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

139

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Compared to the 2016 simulations, the latest simulations give a few percent greater energy use for the 2015 CV and HEV and advanced BEV, but about 20% less energy use for the 2015 BEV. The previous simulation results were used in Harvey (2018a) in an analysis of the future cost and performance of advanced vehicles and as an input to a complete lifecycle analysis by Elgowainy et al (2018) for the 2020–2025 time horizon.…”

Section: Vehicle Performance Potential and Regulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Rethinking electric vehicle subsidies, rediscovering energy efficiency

Harvey

2020

Energy Policy

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Existing regulations regarding fuel energy intensity (MJ/km, litres/100 km, or its inverse, miles per gallon) of light-duty vehicles (LDVs: cars, SUVs, and pickup trucks) for 2025 or 2030 either fall short of the longterm technical potential, or contain numerous loopholes that undermine their effectiveness. At the same time, governments are subsidizing the purchase of electric vehicles (EVs) while the market share of SUVs and pickup trucks grows. This paper reviews the feasible fuel and/or electricity energy intensity of LDVs, and argues that the severity of impending anthropogenic global warming merits a strong policy approach that (i) prescribes significant improvements in the energy intensity of non-electric LDVs and plugin hybrid EVs (PHEVs) when running on fuel , (ii) is independent of the number of electric vehicles sold, and (iii) is accompanied by an overall limit on fleet-average CO 2 emissions that applies to all manufacturers irrespective of the average size and mass of vehicles sold. Subsidies for EVs should be scaled back or eliminated, relying instead in the near term on deep across-the–board improvements in the fuel efficiency of LDVs that will have beneficial spillover effects on the eventual energy intensity of EVs and mineral requirements following a delayed market scale-up.

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“…In a cradle-to-grave analysis, Algowainy et al [7] showed that a combination of engine technologies and renewable fuels could decrease the greenhouse gas emissions by 10-30% of their current amounts. Homogenous charge compression ignition (HCCI) engines are one of those technologies that could push the boundaries of the ICE efficiency [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Study on the Performance and Emissions of HCCI Oxy-Fuel Combustion in a CFR Engine with Recirculated Carbon Dioxide

Mohammed

Elkhazraji

Jan

et al. 2020

SAE Technical Paper Series

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Stringent emission regulations and the anticipated climate change call for a paradigm shift in the design of the conventional internal combustion engines. One way to combat this problem is oxy-fuel combustion in which the combustion products are mainly water vapor and carbon dioxide. Water vapor can be easily separated by condensation and carbon dioxide is then easily captured and stored. However, many technical challenges are associated with this mode of combustion. There are many challenges facing oxy-fuel combustion before it find its way to commercial production especially for internal combustion engines. One such challenge is the relatively high temperature of the oxy-fuel combustion. A solution to this problem is the recirculation of the generated CO2 to moderate the in-cylinder temperature. Therefore, careful study of the effect of recirculating the CO2 back to combustion chamber is needed before the implementation of such a concept. This study is a continuation of a previous work published by the authors. In the previous study, the performance and emissions of an oxy-fuel HCCI engine were investigated. The in-cylinder temperature was moderated by supplying the engine with fresh CO2 from gas cylinders. In this present work the performance of the same oxy-fuel HCCI engine is investigated but the difference is that the in-cylinder temperature is regulated by recirculating the generated CO2. The experiments were conducted in a variable compression CFR engine that was modified to operate in oxy-fuel mode with recycled carbon dioxide. The emissions were also measured using an FTIR exhaust analyzer. The results showed that the implementation of this concept is possible. However, the indicated thermal efficiency deteriorates due to lower combustion and gas exchange efficiencies. Also, the CO2 recirculation resulted in higher CO and unburned hydrocarbon (UHC) emissions.

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Current and Future United States Light-Duty Vehicle Pathways: Cradle-to-Grave Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Economic Assessment

Cited by 86 publications

References 16 publications

Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles

Expert assessments of the cost and expected future performance of proton exchange membrane fuel cells for vehicles

Rethinking electric vehicle subsidies, rediscovering energy efficiency

A Study on the Performance and Emissions of HCCI Oxy-Fuel Combustion in a CFR Engine with Recirculated Carbon Dioxide

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