Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions

Goddard, L.; Mason, S.J.; Zebiak, S.E.; Ropelewski, C.F.; Basher, R.; Cane, M.A.

doi:10.1002/joc.636.abs

Cited by 119 publications

(150 citation statements)

References 80 publications

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“…In recent decades, there has been progress in predicting the evolution of the ENSO phenomena in the Pacific Ocean (Goddard et al, 2001). Forecast centers issue modestly skillful predictions of the seasonal evolution of tropical sea surface temperatures (SST) 5 months in advance (for example, Goddard et al, 2001).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO

Zubair¹,

Siriwardhana

Chandimala

et al. 2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Investigating the year-round rainfall of Sri Lanka provides understanding into the South Asian monsoon system as it compliments studies on the Indian summer monsoon. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a primary mode of climate variability of this area. Here, the predictability of Sri Lanka rainfall based on ENSO is quantified based on composite analysis, correlations and contingency tables. The rainfall is modestly predictable based on ENSO

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mentioning

confidence: 99%

Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO

Zubair¹,

Siriwardhana

Chandimala

et al. 2007

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…For a more detailed account of the relevant physical aspects see Chang and Battisti (1998), Goddard et al (2001), Anderson (2008), Hoskins and Schopf (2008) or the wealth of information available at http://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/elnino/ and links therein.…”

Section: The Scientific Basis Of Seasonal Forecastsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Finally, Section 6 will provide an outlook of possible future developments of seasonal forecasting. Should the reader wish to learn more about the subject, they can access in excess of 600 references (several are cited here too) between the following two publications: Goddard et al (2001) and Troccoli et al (2008).…”

Section: Introduction and A Bit Of Historymentioning

confidence: 99%

Seasonal climate forecasting

Troccoli

2010

Met. Apps

117

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ABSTRACT:The fascination of seasonal climate forecasting, of which El Niño forecasting is the prime example, comes from its multi-faceted character. Not only does it pose interesting new challenges for the climate scientific community but also it is naturally linked to a great variety of socio-economic applications. Seasonal climate forecasts are indeed becoming a most important element in some policy/decision making systems, especially within the context of climate change adaptation. Thus, seriously considering the management of risks posed by the variability of climate on the seasonal to interannual time scale is key to achieving the longer terms goals of climate change adaptation strategy. This review paper explores the main components needed to construct a seasonal forecasting system, from the physical basis of climate seasonal predictions, to the tools used for producing them, to the importance of assessing their skill, to their use in risk management decision-making. Future challenges are also examined.

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“…In the other oceans, the signal-to-noise ratio of coupled variability is weaker and hinders the detection of phenomena involving local air-sea interaction. Even in the tropics, where the interaction is strong, external influences (ENSO and extra-tropical variability) can obscure the identification of local modes of variability in the Atlantic (Marshall et al, 2001) and Indian Oceans (Goddard et al, 2001), whereas in the extra-tropics, the internal atmospheric variability is high and makes the identification of the influence of the ocean rather difficult. The use of models has not yet clarified the situation, because the atmospheric response to mid-latitude sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies is dependent on model and atmospheric state (e.g.…”

Section: Time Scales and Variabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The role of the oceans in climate

Bigg

Jickells

Liss

et al. 2003

Intl Journal of Climatology

126

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The ocean is increasingly seen as a vital component of the climate system. It exchanges with the atmosphere large quantities of heat, water, gases, particles and momentum. It is an important part of the global redistribution of heat from tropics to polar regions keeping our planet habitable, particularly equatorward of about 30°. In this article we review recent work examining the role of the oceans in climate, focusing on research in the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC and later. We discuss the general nature of oceanic climate variability and the large role played by stochastic variability in the interaction of the atmosphere and ocean. We consider the growing evidence for biogeochemical interaction of climatic significance between ocean and atmosphere. Air-sea exchange of several radiatively important gases, in particular CO 2 , is a major mechanism for altering their atmospheric concentrations. Some more reactive gases, such as dimethyl sulphide, can alter cloud formation and hence albedo. Particulates containing iron and originating over land can alter ocean primary productivity and hence feedbacks to other biogeochemical exchanges. We show that not only the tropical Pacific Ocean basin can exhibit coupled ocean-atmosphere interaction, but also the tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Longer lived interactions in the North Pacific and Southern Ocean (the circumpolar wave) are also reviewed. The role of the thermohaline circulation in long-term and abrupt climatic change is examined, with the freshwater budget of the ocean being a key factor for the degree, and longevity, of change. The potential for the Mediterranean outflow to contribute to abrupt change is raised. We end by examining the probability of thermohaline changes in a future of global warming.

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Current approaches to seasonal to interannual climate predictions

Cited by 119 publications

References 80 publications

Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO

Predictability of Sri Lankan rainfall based on ENSO

Seasonal climate forecasting

The role of the oceans in climate

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