Current characteristics of animal rabies cases in Thailand and relevant risk factors identified by a spatial modeling approach

Abstract

The situation of human rabies in Thailand has gradually declined over the past four decades. However, the number of animal rabies cases has slightly increased in the last ten years. This study thus aimed to describe the characteristics of animal rabies between 2017 and 2018 in Thailand in which the prevalence was fairly high and to quantify the association between monthly rabies occurrences and explainable variables using the generalized additive models (GAMs) to predict the spatial risk areas for rabies spread. Our results indicate that the majority of animals affected by rabies in Thailand are dogs. Most of the affected dogs were owned, free or semi-free roaming, and unvaccinated. Clusters of rabies were highly distributed in the northeast, followed by the central and the south of the country. Temporally, the number of cases gradually increased after June and reached a peak in January. Based on our spatial models, human and cattle population density as well as the spatio-temporal history of rabies occurrences, and the distances from the cases to the secondary roads and country borders are identified as the risk factors. Our predictive maps are applicable for strengthening the surveillance system in high-risk areas. Nevertheless, the identified risk factors should be rigorously considered and integrated into the strategic plans for the prevention and control of animal rabies in Thailand.

One Health perspectives on sustainable rabies prevention in Thailand: a qualitative interview study

“…The three rabies-free communities studied are demographically diverse. These communities are also in the north of Thailand, where animal rabies cases were less prevalent (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021). This could reflect the effectiveness of rabies control in terms of long-term sustainability.…”

Spatial and temporal dynamic analysis of rabies: A review of current methodologies

“…Dog population data in Thailand can be obtained from local administration organizations (LAOs) at http://www.thairabies.net/trn/, while the Land Development Department (LDD) provides geographic information, including administrative divisions and highways (http://www. lddservice.org/lddapp/client/#/map) (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021). The Worldpop project (https://www.worldpop.org/) is also helpful as it provides raster maps of human population density with a 100-m resolution (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021).…”

“…lddservice.org/lddapp/client/#/map) (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021). The Worldpop project (https://www.worldpop.org/) is also helpful as it provides raster maps of human population density with a 100-m resolution (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021). Other factors and data sources are listed in Table 1 (modified from Guo et al, 2018a), with China as an example.…”

“…However, there are still high-risk countries with a tendency towards spatial expansion of the disease. Examples in Asia include China (Zhang et al, 2011;Zhou et al, 2016), Republic of Kazakhstan (Abdrakhmanov et al, 2016), India (Brookes et al, 2018), Thailand (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021), Indonesia (Ward, 2014); in the Americas Mexico (Bárcenas-Reyes et al, 2019;Ortega-Sánchez et al, 2022), Chile (Escobar et al, 2015), Brazil (Oviedo-Pastrana et al, 2015); in Europe Germany (Eckardt et al, 2015) and Ukraine (Polupan et al, 2017); and Africa Tunisia (Kalthoum et al, 2021). The World Health Organization (WHO) mapped the rabies risk in 2013 with Asia and Africa being at the highest level (Figure 1; source: World Health Organization, modified).…”

“…We outline the methods for analysing the dynamics, which may contribute to finding the best ways to lessen the risk of new outbreaks by increasing the understanding of how these epidemics start. Risk-based techniques can improve veterinary surveillance by determining the requirements and priorities for monitoring (Thanapongtharm et al, 2021), which would lead to effective prevention and management of both animal and human rabies.…”