Current Emissions and Future Mitigation Pathways of Coal-Fired Power Plants in China from 2010 to 2030

Abstract

As the largest energy infrastructure in China, the power sector consumed approximately half of China's coal over the past decade and threatened air quality and greenhouse gas (GHG) abatement targets. In this work, we assessed the evolution of coal-fired power plants and associated emissions in China during 2010−2030 by using a unit-based emission projection model, which integrated the historical power plant information, turnover of the future power plant fleet, and evolution of end-of-pipe control technologies. We found that, driven by stringent environmental legislation, SO 2 , NO x , and PM 2.5 (particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in diameter) emissions from coalfired power plants decreased by 49%, 45%, and 24%, respectively, during 2010−2015, compared to 15% increase in CO 2 emissions. In contrast to everincreasing CO 2 emissions until 2030 under current energy development planning, we found that aggressive energy development planning could curb CO 2 emissions from the peak before 2030. Owing to the implementation of a "near zero" emission control policy, we projected emissions of air pollutants will significantly decrease during 2016−2030. Early retirement of small and low-efficiency power plants would further reduce air pollutants and CO 2 emissions. Our study explored various mitigation pathways for China's coal-fired power plants, which could reduce coal consumption, air pollutants, and CO 2 emissions and improve energy efficiency.

Air quality and health benefits of China’s emission control policies on coal-fired power plants during 2005–2020

“…We establish two baseline scenarios and four hypothetical scenarios based on the CPED database [10,11] to explore the air quality and health impacts of emission reductions from CPPs in China during 2005-2020. Table 1 shows the description of six emission scenarios and table 2 presents the evolution of technology and emissions of CPPs in China during 2005-2020.…”

“…The effects of the ultra-low emission standards are assessed using the PRE-ULE20 scenario by assuming that all CPPs reach the standards in 2020. The projected provincial coal-fired electricity generation in 2020 derived from our latest work (Tong et al) [11] is further adopted in the PRE-GEN20 scenario to explore the future impact of power generation change. We did not include the impacts on emissions of further power plant fleet structure optimization during 2015-2020 due to the uncertainty in the spatial location predictions of newly built units.…”

“…Accordingly, CPPs started to install flue gas desulfurization (FGD) devices in 2005 and de-NO x devices using selective non-catalytic reduction or selective catalytic reduction technology in 2011 [10]. By 2015, the ratio of CPPs equipped with FGD and de-NO x devices reached up to 95.6% and 84.2%, respectively [11]. The emission standard for CPPs has been strengthened more recently.…”

“…The concentrations of particulate matter (PM) including PM 2.5 and PM 10 , SO 2 and NO x from CPPs plumes are required to decline to less than 10 mg m −3 , 35 mg m −3 and 50 mg m −3 by 2020, respectively, under the requirements of the ultra-low emission standards [12]. The implementation of the above control measures is expected to bring about dramatic reductions in air pollutants emissions and concentration [10,11,14]. A good understanding of the air quality and health impacts associated with reduced emissions is essential for policy makers.…”

“…two retrospective emission scenarios based on the high-resolution coal-fired power plant (CPED) [10,11] database at the unit level in China to quantify emission changes induced by the control strategy during 2005-2015. We also develop two prediction emission scenarios to predict the CPPs emission changes associated with the implementation of ultra-low emission standards and power generation increments during 2015-2020.…”