Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

Foley, Aoife; Leahy, Paul; Marvuglia, Antonino; McKeogh, Eamon

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2011.05.033

Cited by 1,073 publications

(521 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…Spatial and temporal variation of solar irradiance and wind speed makes the forecasting of such generation a challenge. Although in recent years there has been a significant improvement in prediction and forecasting [71], nevertheless output still remains stochastic at times. As a result it is difficult to have a system that solely depends on such production sources.…”

Section: Local Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energetic communities for community energy: A review of key issues and trends shaping integrated community energy systems

Koirala

Koliou

Friege

et al. 2016

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

618

330

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Energy systems across the globe are going through a radical transformation as a result of technological and institutional changes, depletion of fossil fuel resources, and climate change. At the local level, increasing distributed energy resources requires that the centralized energy systems be re-organized. In this paper, the concept of Integrated Community Energy Systems (ICESs) is presented as a modern development to re-organize local energy systems to integrate distributed energy resources and engage local communities. Local energy systems such as ICESs not only ensure self-provision of energy but also provide essential system services to the larger energy system. In this regard, a comparison of different energy system integration option is provided. We review the current energy trends and the associated technological, socio-economic, environmental and institutional issues shaping the development of ICESs. These systems can be applied to both developed and developing countries, however, their objectives, business models as well as composition differs. ICESs can be accepted by different actors such as local governments, communities, energy suppliers and system operators as an effective means to achieve sustainability and thereby will have significant roles in future energy systems.

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Section: Local Generationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Energetic communities for community energy: A review of key issues and trends shaping integrated community energy systems

Koirala

Koliou

Friege

et al. 2016

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

618

330

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Once the GA finds an equation that properly fits the training set, the same amount of samples (i.e., ph=ts) can be predicted with good fidelity using that same equation; if one would like to predict for longer horizons, it is recommended to either retrain the GA [14,59] or increase the training set at the expense of higher computational complexity. While the impact of retraining is further investigated in Section 4.5, in this section we analyze the impact of using a larger prediction horizon, i.e.…”

Section: Impact Of the Selection Methods And Fitness Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting expected TCP throughput using genetic algorithm

2016

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Predicting the expected throughput of TCP is important for several aspects such as e.g. determining handover criteria for future multihomed mobile nodes or determining the expected throughput of a given MPTCP subflow for load-balancing reasons. However, this is challenging due to time varying behavior of the underlying network characteristics. In this paper, we present a genetic-algorithm-based prediction model for estimating TCP throughput values. Our approach tries to find the best matching combination of mathematical functions that approximate a given time series that accounts for the TCP throughput samples using genetic algorithm. Based on collected historical datapoints about measured TCP throughput samples, our algorithm estimates expected throughput over time. We evaluate the quality of the prediction using different selection and diversity strategies for creating new chromosomes. Also, we explore the use of different fitness functions in order to evaluate the goodness of a chromosome. The goal is to show how different tuning on the genetic algorithm may have an impact on the prediction. Using extensive simulations over several TCP throughput traces, we find that the genetic algorithm successfully finds reasonable matching mathematical functions that allow to describe the TCP sampled throughput values with good fidelity. We also explore the effectiveness of predicting time series throughput samples for a given prediction horizon and estimate the prediction error and confidence.

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“…Very short-term (e.g. 0-48 hours) predictions, which are of greatest interest to traders, are now solidly in the hands of statistical post-processing algorithms (Foley et al 2012). The trader forecasters are looking with growing interests at the predictions for the coming weeks and months as they feel that on those sorts of timescales their instinct and knowledge can still outperform the statistical tools and provide useful guidance for the traders.…”

Section: Tradingmentioning

confidence: 99%

European Climate Services

Buontempo

2018

Weather &Amp; Climate Services for the Energy Industry

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The launch of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS, Hewitt et al., Nature Climate Change 2(12): 831-832, 2012) just a few years ago helped to redirect the focus of the climate community towards the users and their information needs. A number of national and international initiatives such as the Climate Service Partnership, or the Climate Science for Services Partnership between China and the UK, were designed to build upon such an international framework. The role of the European Commission appears to be very prominent in the international climate services landscape as it supported a largenumber of research and innovation programmes in the field. The chapter discusses the role climate services could play for the energy sector starting from an analysis of the interactions that already exist and building upon a few specific examples that indicate some good practice in climate service development.

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Current methods and advances in forecasting of wind power generation

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Cited by 1,073 publications

References 47 publications

Energetic communities for community energy: A review of key issues and trends shaping integrated community energy systems

Energetic communities for community energy: A review of key issues and trends shaping integrated community energy systems

Predicting expected TCP throughput using genetic algorithm

European Climate Services

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