Current methods of desert locust forecasting at FAO ¹

Abstract

Desert locusts (Schistocerca gregaria) have been feared by farmers in Africa, the Near East and South‐West Asia since antiquity. Given favourable environmental conditions, locusts can rapidly breed and form highly mobile swarms which may threaten agriculture in about 60 countries covering more than 20% of the total land surface of the earth. During this century, there have been eight major plagues, the last being in 1986/1989. Periods of recession broken by the occasional relatively minor outbreak of locusts occur in between plagues. For example, there has been an outbreak of locusts in Africa since 1992 which has not reached the proportions of a true plague. FAO operates a Desert Locust Information Service to provide early warning to affected countries of potential locust invasions and advice to the international donor community. Within this service, the locust situation and environmental conditions in affected countries are monitored on a daily basis using reports from national locust survey teams, remote‐sensing imagery and meteorological data. Short and medium‐term forecasts are prepared indicating potential locust migrations and areas of breeding. These forecasts form the basis of action plans in affected countries. This paper presents a brief introduction to desert locust biology, behaviour and population dynamics and a general overview of desert locust forecasting at FAO.

Importance of solitarious desert locust population dynamics: lessons from historical survey data in Algeria

“…Hayne] (Duranton et al, 2012). These habitats may harbour outbreaks and trigger gregarizations, they are the subject of a regular monitoring as part of preventive operations (Cressman, 2001;Lecoq, 2003Lecoq, , 2005.…”

“…In Algeria, the National Institute of Plant Protection (INPV) conducts regular monitoring of the desert locust populations whose main focus is the areas containing locust breeding sites, in the southern part of the country. The potentially favourable areas for locusts are explored according to a procedure and a standardized methodology recommended by FAO (Cressman, 2001). The collected information includes the geographical coordinates of the observation site, data on locusts (density, behaviour, development status.…”

“…60% of surveys, other environmental variables being recorded in less than 30%). Phase statuses of locust populations were recorded by survey teams following FAO guidelines (Cressman, 2001) based mainly on locusts morphology, coloration, behaviour, and overall Figure 1 The 11 weather stations of the Algerian territory used in the study and limits of three regions as reflected by the monthly analyses (see Table 1). [Color figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] population dynamics.…”

Description of plant communities on the Red Sea coastal plain of Sudan

“…The desert locust is a migratory pest whose population development in remote areas must be continually monitored to prevent outbreaks, upsurges and plagues (Cressman, 1996). Effective monitoring requires predictive capacity as to potential sites of locust population increase.…”

Locusts and remote sensing: a review

“…47 and references therein). After the pioneer studies by Pedgley 44 and Hielkema, 45,64 remote sensing has been used for finding and mapping emerging vegetation in the desert to help monitor and forecast the desert locust 50,56,66,68,69 and the Australian plague locust. 46,49,51,[72][73][74][75][76][77][78][79][80][81][82] The tool allows assessing the ecological conditions favorable for locust survival, breeding, and gregarization.…”