Current Problems of Water Supply and Usage in Central Asia, Tian Shan Basin

Lemenkova, Polina

doi:10.7250/iscect.2013.002

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 14 publications

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“…Generally, five countries are involved in the geopolitics of Tian Shan. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are among the water providers, and Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan are the consumers (Lemenkova, 2014). The current renewable freshwater resources in CA (cubic meters/capita) are as follows: Tajikistan (7146), Kyrgyzstan (7894), Kazakhstan (3568), Afghanistan (1299), Uzbekistan (504) and Turkmenistan (244) (data from https://data.worldbank.org).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections

Fallah,

Didovets,

Rostami

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Central Asia (CA) is among the world's most vulnerable regions to climate change. Increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations (GHGs) are the primary forcing of the current and future climate system for the time scale of a century. By analysing observation datasets, we show that a warming of 1.2°C led to a decrease of 20% in snow‐depth CA during the last 70 years, especially over the mountains. In recent decades, longer summer times and fewer icing days (more than 20 days·year−1) have exposed unprecedented shock to CA's climate system's components. Furthermore, we analyse 442 model simulations from Coupled Model Inter‐comparison Project Phase 5 and 6 (CMIP5, CMIP6) and show that CMIP6 simulations are generally warmer and wetter than the CMIP5 ones in CA. For instance, under the highest emission scenarios (RCP8.5 and SSP5‐8.5), CMIP6 projects a 6.1°C increase, while CMIP5 projects a 5.3°C increase, suggesting CMIP6 anticipates greater warming with high emissions. In contrast to CMIP6, the CMIP5 precipitation trends suggest a potential nonlinear relationship between increased greenhouse gas emissions and changes in precipitation, though the impact is much less pronounced than the temperature changes. Our analysis shows that CMIP6 models are more sensitive to temperature rise than CMIP5 ones. Both simulation sets' ensemble means capture well the observed warming trend. The imposed snow‐melting leads to an increase in the run‐off in the vicinity of glaciers. Such climatic shifts lead to more flooding events in CA. Given the projected warming range of 2–6°C in CA at the end of the century in various scenarios and models, such warming trends might be catastrophic in this region. The seasonal cycle of the temperature change indicates an extension of the glacier's melting period under future scenarios with fossil‐fueled development. The models' uncertainty increases for the far‐future time‐slice, and warming larger than 4°C in CA is very likely among all the models and during all the seasons if no sustainable action is taken. This study also incorporates a detailed Köppen climate classification analysis, revealing significant shifts towards warmer climate categories in Central Asia, which may have profound implications for regional hydrological cycles and water resource management, particularly in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins under warmer scenario by the end of the century. The Tundra and ice cap climate categories will lose more than 60% of their coverage at the end of the century compared to the historical period in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya river basins.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change impacts on Central Asia: Trends, extremes and future projections

Fallah,

Didovets,

Rostami

et al. 2024

Intl Journal of Climatology

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“…The glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains host the largest amount of fresh water in Central Asia and have a crucial function on the water cycle in the generally arid region of Central Asia (Aizen et al., 1997). Therefore, meltwater from Tianshan is a vital resource for the more than 100 million people living in the arid and semi‐arid regions of Central Asia (Bekturganov et al., 2016; Lemenkova, 2013; Xenarios et al., 2019). However, driven by global warming, Central Asia has warmed significantly in recent decades, with a rate of 0.36°C–0.42°C/10a during 1979–2011 (Hu et al., 2014), resulting in a pronounced glacier retreat and decrease in snow accumulation in Tianshan Mountains (Aizen et al., 2006; Farinotti et al., 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Lagrangian Analysis of Moisture Sources of Precipitation in the Tianshan Mountains, Central Asia

Guan

Langhamer

Schneider

2022

Earth and Space Science

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The Tianshan Mountains form a prominent so-called water tower in Central Asia providing major parts of the water resources of the surrounding lowlands (Immerzeel & Bierkens, 2012;Chen et al., 2016). These water resources are essential for ecosystems, agriculture, and water supply for millions of people in Central Asia (Ososkova et al., 2000). Water resources stem from direct precipitation and runoff, seasonal snowmelt as well as meltwater from glaciers and permafrost (Armstrong et al., 2019;Sorg et al., 2012). The glaciers of the Tianshan Mountains host the largest amount of fresh water in Central Asia and have a crucial function on the water cycle in the generally arid region of Central Asia (Aizen et al., 1997). Therefore, meltwater from Tianshan is a vital resource for the more than 100 million people living in the arid and semi-arid regions of Central Asia (

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