Current State and Trends of Development of the Agricultural Complex of Ukraine

,; Chub, Anton

doi:10.32840/2522-4263/2021-5-5

Cited by 2 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 5 publications

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“…As such, A. Chub (2021) research demonstrated that animal husbandry constitutes an integral and crucial component of Ukraine's agro-industrial complex. The importance of this branch of the economy is determined by the need to provide food products of animal origin in the population's diet.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting husbandry development using time series

Kulyk,

Fokina-Mezentseva,

Piankova

et al. 2023

Scientific Horizons

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Building time series models based on historical data is a pressing challenge in the agricultural sector. This is essential, as analysing and predicting processes related to the food security of the state, region, and business entities are of paramount importance in management. With the help of forecasts, enterprises can adjust their production activities in such a way as to satisfy demand and deliver products to consumers on time. The research aims to predict the trends in the growth of cattle and cow populations and identify the most suitable forecasting timeframe. Statistical methods related to autoregression are used for this type of analysis: autoregressive models, moving average models or a combination of both, integrated variable structure models, and models that include seasonal effects and exogenous factors with an autoregressive and moving average component in the model. Monthly statistical data on the number of cattle and cows are used, among them mean, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values, asymmetry, and kurtosis. The dynamics of the decrease in the number of cattle and cows are shown. The studied series were checked for stationarity. The time series data for the cattle population underwent a Box-Cox transformation. The optimal parameters of the models used are given. Predictive values for periods (months) were obtained and the change in the number of cattle over the last 15 years was analysed. Constructed time series are compared with the actual values, which are illustrated in the graphs. Estimates of rootmean-square deviation, and mean absolute percentage error for different forecasting terms are given. By comparing these estimates for different time intervals, the optimal period for the forecast (24 months) was determined. This study allows farms and enterprises in the industry to predict a possible number of products (milk, meat) that could be collected or obtained in the future. It helps to take the necessary management steps: plan resource needs, improve efficiency, increase profits, reduce costs, and adapt to changes in the market

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting husbandry development using time series

Kulyk,

Fokina-Mezentseva,

Piankova

et al. 2023

Scientific Horizons

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“…In the conditions of a favourable temperate climate, the large size of cultivated areas, a significant number of the employed population, and high soil fertility create a unique agricultural potential of the agrarian sector. Thus, in recent decades, the volume of production of grain and leguminous crops, as well as sunflower, has been rapidly growing (Chub, 2022). Despite the large production capacities of agricultural enterprises, there is a gap between the available and the maximum possible productivity of agricultural production (Lupenko & Andros, 2020).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Agricultural Development Management in the Context of Ukraine's Foreign Economic Security

Ivanov,

Hurtovyi

2023

EJMI

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Purpose: Unsolved pre-war problems of agricultural production are additionally burdened by ongoing military operations, which have caused inevitable changes in domestic and foreign markets. Identifying and eliminating threats to the development of the agricultural sector will increase the efficiency of agricultural production, which will increase the level of foreign economic security of the country and, at the same time, strengthen global food security. Design / Method / Approach: Based on the data of domestic and international statistical services and organizations, we used economic and statistical methods (regression, trend analysis) and graphically presented the obtained results. Findings: A critically low share of imports negatively affects foreign economic security and pricing in the domestic market. The products export of plant-origin and low-value metals, as opposed to the high-tech products import, is critical. The condition with the provision of fish and fish products, fruits, berries and grapes, eggs, vegetables, and melon food crops is unstable. It depends either on conditions in foreign markets or only on domestic factors. The geographical structure of foreign trade is unsatisfactory and threatening due to excessive imports from China. An inverse correlation between the export volume of Ukrainian agricultural products and the world level of food prices has been established. Theoretical Implications: The work confirms the importance of the Ukrainian agricultural sector in the context of global food security. Practical Implications: We offer a set of actions, the implementation of which will make it possible to eliminate problems in agricultural production that negatively affect the state of foreign economic security. Originality / Value: Work on a highly specialized topic, which includes the development of agricultural processes against the background of ongoing military operations. Research Limitations / Future Research: In further research, it is advisable to consider the importance of the agricultural sector in the system of economic security of different countries since this article is limited to the methodology of the Ukrainian government. Paper type: Empirical JEL Classification: Q11, Q17, Q18

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Current State and Trends of Development of the Agricultural Complex of Ukraine

Cited by 2 publications

References 5 publications

Forecasting husbandry development using time series

Forecasting husbandry development using time series

Agricultural Development Management in the Context of Ukraine's Foreign Economic Security

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