Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

Manders, Astrid; Builtjes, P. J. H.; Curier, Lyana; Gon, Hugo Denier van der; Hendriks, Carlijn; Sander, Johannes; Kranenburg, Richard; Kuenen, Jeroen; Segers, Arjo; Timmermans, Renske; Visschedijk, Antoon; Kruit, R.J. Wichink; Pul, W.A.J. van; Sauter, Ferd; Swaluw, E. van der; Swart, D. P. J.; Douros, John; Eskes, Henk; Meijgaard, E. van; Ulft, Bert van; Velthoven, P. van; Banzhaf, Sabine; Mues, Andrea; Stern, R.; Fu, Guangliang; Sha, Liqing; Heemink, A.W.; Velzen, Nils van; Schaap, Martijn

doi:10.5194/gmd-10-4145-2017

Cited by 131 publications

(128 citation statements)

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“…Six CTMs were used to estimate wet deposition in Europe for the period 1990-2010: Chimere , CMAQ (Byun and Schere, 2006), EMEP MSC-W , LOTOS-EUROS (Manders et al, 2017), MATCH (Robertson et al, 1999) and MINNI (Mircea et al, 2014. The shortened model names CHIM, CMAQ, EMEP, LOTO, MATCH and MINNI are used throughout the article.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The statistical significance of the trends in observed and modelled wet deposition and precipitation, as well as in the emissions, was calculated using the Mann-Kendall (MK) test, which assesses whether there is a statistically significant monotonic trend in a data time series (Mann, 1945;Kendall, 1970). This is a non-parametric test and so is suited to data sets that are not necessarily normally distributed (unlike other methods, such as linear regression).…”

Section: Appendix A: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

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An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010

et al. 2019

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Abstract. The wet deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe for the period 1990–2010 was estimated by six atmospheric chemistry transport models (CHIMERE, CMAQ, EMEP MSC-W, LOTOS-EUROS, MATCH and MINNI) within the framework of the EURODELTA-Trends model intercomparison. The simulated wet deposition and its trends for two 11-year periods (1990–2000 and 2000–2010) were evaluated using data from observations from the EMEP European monitoring network. For annual wet deposition of oxidised nitrogen (WNOx), model bias was within 30 % of the average of the observations for most models. There was a tendency for most models to underestimate annual wet deposition of reduced nitrogen (WNHx), although the model bias was within 40 % of the average of the observations. Model bias for WNHx was inversely correlated with model bias for atmospheric concentrations of NH3+NH4+, suggesting that an underestimation of wet deposition partially contributed to an overestimation of atmospheric concentrations. Model bias was also within about 40 % of the average of the observations for the annual wet deposition of sulfur (WSOx) for most models. Decreasing trends in WNOx were observed at most sites for both 11-year periods, with larger trends, on average, for the second period. The models also estimated predominantly decreasing trends at the monitoring sites and all but one of the models estimated larger trends, on average, for the second period. Decreasing trends were also observed at most sites for WNHx, although larger trends, on average, were observed for the first period. This pattern was not reproduced by the models, which estimated smaller decreasing trends, on average, than those observed or even small increasing trends. The largest observed trends were for WSOx, with decreasing trends at more than 80 % of the sites. On average, the observed trends were larger for the first period. All models were able to reproduce this pattern, although some models underestimated the trends (by up to a factor of 4) and others overestimated them (by up to 40 %), on average. These biases in modelled trends were directly related to the tendency of the models to under- or overestimate annual wet deposition and were smaller for the relative trends (expressed as % yr−1 relative to the deposition at the start of the period). The fact that model biases were fairly constant throughout the time series makes it possible to improve the predictions of wet deposition for future scenarios by adjusting the model estimates using a bias correction calculated from past observations. An analysis of the contributions of various factors to the modelled trends suggests that the predominantly decreasing trends in wet deposition are mostly due to reductions in emissions of the precursors NOx, NH3 and SOx. However, changes in meteorology (e.g. precipitation) and other (non-linear) interactions partially offset the decreasing trends due to emission reductions during the first period but not the second. This suggests that the emission reduction measures had a relatively larger effect on wet deposition during the second period, at least for the sites with observations.

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Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Appendix A: Trend Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010

et al. 2019

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“…Satellite-based observations of tropospheric NO 2 columns by solar backscatter have been used extensively as a proxy for NO x emissions and their trends (Martin, 2008;. These observations have been qualitatively consistent with the trends in Chinese NO x emission inventories, showing an increasing trend of NO 2 columns over China between 1994 and 2011, with a sharp reversal in eastern China V. Shah et al: Effect of changing NO x lifetime since 2011 (Richter et al, 2005;van der A et al, 2006, 2008Krotkov et al, 2016;Schneider et al, 2015;Duncan et al, 2016;Cui et al, 2016;Georgoulias et al, 2019;Wang et al, 2019). However, the trends in the NO 2 columns are steeper than in the emission inventories (Zhang et al, 2007; Q.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of changing NOx lifetime on the seasonality and long-term trends of satellite-observed tropospheric NO2 columns over China

et al. 2020

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Satellite observations of tropospheric NO 2 columns are extensively used to infer trends in anthropogenic emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ≡ NO + NO 2 ), but this may be complicated by trends in NO x lifetime. Here we use 2004-2018 observations from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) satellite-based instrument (QA4ECV and POMINO v2 retrievals) to examine the seasonality and trends of tropospheric NO 2 columns over central-eastern China, and we interpret the results with the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The observations show a factor of 3 increase in NO 2 columns from summer to winter, which we explain in GEOS-Chem as reflecting a longer NO x lifetime in winter than in summer (21 h versus 5.9 h in 2017). The 2005-2018 summer trends of OMI NO 2 closely follow the trends in the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory for China (MEIC), with a rise over the 2005-2011 period and a 25 % decrease since. We find in GEOS-Chem no significant trend of the NO x lifetime in summer, supporting the emission trend reported by the MEIC. The winter trend of OMI NO 2 is steeper than in summer over the entire period, which we attribute to a decrease in NO x lifetime at lower NO x emissions. Half of the NO x sink in winter is from N 2 O 5 hydrolysis, which counterintuitively becomes more efficient as NO x emissions decrease due to less titration of ozone at night. The formation of organic nitrates also becomes an increasing sink of NO x as NO x emissions decrease but emissions of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) do not.Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.

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“…RF and MLR models explaining more than 20 % of the statistical variance of measurements could be calculated for Cd, Cu, Hg, Ni, Pb, Zn and N. The following predictors had the highest relative significance for estimating element concentrations in the mosses: The predictor with the strongest variable significance was the sampled moss species (Cd, Cu, Ni, Pb, Zn and N). The atmospheric deposition calculated with the chemical transport models LOTOS-EUROS (LE; [22,35,36], EMEP/MSC-E [49] and EMEP/MSC-W [43] (year 2015, mean of the years 2013-2015), the MMD 2015 shows a lower predictive force for the respective element concentrations in the mosses than in previous campaigns. For N (LE; 2013-2015) and Hg (EMEP; 2013-2015) the calculated deposition in moss monitoring has a mean variable significance, for Cd (EMEP; 2013-2015) a minor significance and for Pb no significance as a predictor in the statistical models.…”

Section: Results MMD 2015mentioning

confidence: 99%

Moss species-specific accumulation of atmospheric deposition?

Schröder

Nickel

2019

Environ Sci Eur

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Background: This article presents statistical analyses of elements concentrations in mosses collected in two monitoring programmes: 1. The German moss monitoring as part of the European Moss Survey conducted in 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2015 at 592, 1026, 1028, 726 and 400 sites across Germany, respectively, and chemically analysed according to harmonised methods throughout Europe; and 2. The moss surveys additionally performed throughout Bavaria, federal state of Germany. The evaluations of the present study are intended to examine indications whether the element accumulations are specific to moss species and whether, therefore, conversion factors should be used. Such observations and recommendations have so far been limited to spatially confined areas and relatively few moss samples and were derived from different studies without a common methodology. Therefore, the objective of this investigation was to analyse large and long-term datasets from moss surveys for differences in element concentrations in different moss species. This analysis was based on data derived from several moss species collected across Germany and specimens of only one moss species collected in the monitoring programme performed by the environmental authority of Bavaria. So far, the presented investigation is the most comprehensive one in terms of running time, spatial density of the measurement network and method harmonisation. Results:The present study does neither verify nor falsify the hypothesis of moss species-specific element accumulations in mosses. This, like the other studies, is not possible because of its empirical design, since that would require strictly controlled laboratory experiments. However, this investigation yielded hints, that the differences in element accumulation in several moss species across German surveys between 1990 and 2015 are in the range of the intraand inter-specific variance reported. Conclusion:It is, therefore, advisable to continue dispensing with conversion factors so far. which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

Cited by 131 publications

References 136 publications

An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010

An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010

Effect of changing NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> lifetime on the seasonality and long-term trends of satellite-observed tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> columns over China

Moss species-specific accumulation of atmospheric deposition?

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Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS–EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

Cited by 131 publications

References 136 publications

An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010

An evaluation of European nitrogen and sulfur wet deposition and their trends estimated by six chemistry transport models for the period 1990–2010

Effect of changing NO&lt;sub&gt;&lt;i&gt;x&lt;/i&gt;&lt;/sub&gt; lifetime on the seasonality and long-term trends of satellite-observed tropospheric NO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; columns over China

Moss species-specific accumulation of atmospheric deposition?

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Effect of changing NO<sub><i>x</i></sub> lifetime on the seasonality and long-term trends of satellite-observed tropospheric NO<sub>2</sub> columns over China