Cycles of war: Historical speculations on future international violence

The consequences of war

“…Economic recovery progresses. With the passage of time, some would link it to generational intervals, the war weariness effect is expected to decay with a consequent increase in the probability of another war (see Hansen, 1932;Wright, 1942;Toynbee, 1954;Singer and Small, 1972;Blainey, 1973;Farrar, 1977;Siverson, 1980;Levy and Morgan, 1986;Goldstein, 1988). What might be viewed as a weaker form of this interpretation notes that leadership predispositions are strongly colored by previous war lessons.…”

The Impact of Economic Development upon International Conflicts: A Granger Causality Test for Some Pacific‐Asian Countries

“…Noting the intrinsic association between economic wealth and power enhancement, Realists postulate that economic development breeds international conflicts because it increases the capacities of economically advanced states to act upon international conflicts.(A. L. Macfie, 1938 ;Geoffrey Blainey, 1973 ;Maurice East, 1973 ;L. L. Farrar, 1977) In his comprehensive study of the causes of war, Blainey argues that enhanced economic well-being leads to easy financing of war and overconfidence of political leaders in defining and coping with international problems, a mental mood he believes is dangerous to peace?…”