Cyclic rapid warming on centennial‐scale revealed by a 2650‐year stalagmite record of warm season temperature

Tan, Ming; Liu, Tungsheng; Hou, Juzhi; Qin, Xiaoguang; Zhang, Hucai; Li, Tieying

doi:10.1029/2003gl017352

Cited by 279 publications

(245 citation statements)

References 20 publications

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“…2A) for this study was obtained from the latest reconstructed temperature series by Ge et al (2013) on the basis of multi-proxies (e.g., ice cores and lake sediment) throughout China. Other temperature reconstructions have been conducted in China, for instance Tan et al (2003) and Yi et al (2012), but the spatial coverage of these studies failed to include the entire country. Furthermore, this reconstruction of paleoclimate by Ge et al (2013) has been regarded as one representative climatic reconstruction in China (Mauelshagen, 2014).…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Pei

Zhang

et al. 2015

Social Science & Medicine

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a b s t r a c tWe investigated the mechanism of epidemics with the impacts of climate change and socio-economic fluctuations in the Ming and Qing Dynasties in China (AD 1368e1901). Using long-term and highquality datasets, this study is the first quantitative research that verifies the 'climate change / economy / epidemics' mechanism in historical China by statistical methods that include correlation analysis, Granger causality analysis, ARX, and Poisson-ARX modeling. The analysis provides the evidences that climate change could only fundamentally lead to the epidemics spread and occurrence, but the depressed economic well-being is the direct trigger of epidemics spread and occurrence at the national and long term scale in historical China. Moreover, statistical modeling shows that economic well-being is more important than population pressure in the mechanism of epidemics. However, population pressure remains a key element in determining the social vulnerability of the epidemics occurrence under climate change. Notably, the findings not only support adaptation theories but also enhance our confidence to address climatic shocks if economic buffering capacity can be promoted steadily. The findings can be a basis for scientists and policymakers in addressing global and regional environmental changes.

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Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Pei

Zhang

et al. 2015

Social Science & Medicine

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“…Some of the century-scale cycles in this record have already been reported [2]. Mostly attributed to solar changes, they are likely to be correlated with the North Atlantic icerafting cycles, suggesting a solar-coupled connection between the East Asia and North Atlantic climates [3].…”

mentioning

confidence: 94%

“…The shorter term oscillatory signals in this stalagmite have already been discussed [4,5]. However, because the time span of the record has now been extended, and the thickness dataset calibrated (by removing the non-climatic sedimentary trends), a new analysis is necessary [2].…”

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confidence: 99%

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Decadal-scale variability of warm season temperature in Beijing over the past 2650 years

Dai

Zhang

2011

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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A continuous record of surface temperature for the past 2650 years was obtained in an earlier study from a Beijing stalagmite based on sedimentary layer counting and thickness measurements. Singular spectrum analysis, multi-taper and wavelet spectral analyses are used in this study to identify decadal-scale signals and their origins in this record. Besides long-term cycles of solar origin identified in earlier studies, this record contains cycles that dominate temperature with periods of 102-70, 66-50, 31, 25-22, 19, 15, 12 and 9 years. The 102-70, 25-22, 12 and 9 year cycles are attributable to solar variation, while the others are likely to be related to low-latitude ocean forcing. These results suggest that century-scale changes in the Beijing summer temperature over the past 2650 years are primarily controlled by solar variation, while ocean-atmospheric interactions play a prominent role in modulating decadal-scale variability.

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“…Studying past climate can improve our understanding of the processes and mecha-nisms behind the climate variability experienced, and can provide researchers with a scientific basis for better forecasting future climate change. In recent years, studies on past climate in eastern China have yielded regional proxybased temperature records [5][6][7][8][9], dry/wet indexes [10][11][12] or precipitation [13][14][15][16] time series with record lengths of 1000-2650 years at various temporal resolutions. These data are reconstructed using historical documents, stalagmites, tree rings, ice cores, and lake sediments.…”

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confidence: 99%

Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium

et al. 2011

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Using Lanczos filtered simulation results from the ECHO-G coupled ocean-atmosphere model, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal structure of temperature and precipitation on centennial time scale to examine how climate change in eastern China responded to external forcing during the last millennium. The conclusions are (1) eastern China experienced a warm-cold-warm climate transition, and the transition from the warm period to the cold period was slower than the cold to warm transition which followed it. There was more rainfall in the warm periods, and the transitional peak and valley of precipitation lag those of temperature. The effective solar radiation and solar irradiance have significant impacts on the temporal variation of both temperature and precipitation. Volcanic activity plays an important role in the sudden drop of temperature before the Present Warm Period (PWP). There is a positive correlation between precipitation and volcanic activity before 1400 A.D., and a negative relationship between the two thereafter. The concentration of greenhouse gases increases in the PWP, and the temperature and precipitation increase accordingly. (2) The spatial pattern of the first leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of temperature on centennial time scale is consistent with that on the inter-annual/inter-decadal (IA-ID) time scales; namely, the entirety of eastern China is of the same sign. This pattern has good coherence with effective solar radiation and the concentrations of greenhouse gases. The first leading EOF mode of precipitation on centennial time scale is totally different from that on the IA-ID time scales. The first leading mode of centennial time scale changes consistently over the entirety of eastern China, while the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers are the opposite to the rest of eastern China is the leading spatial pattern on IA-ID time scale. The distribution of precipitation on centennial time scale is affected by solar irradiance and greenhouse gas concentrations.

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Cyclic rapid warming on centennial‐scale revealed by a 2650‐year stalagmite record of warm season temperature

Cited by 279 publications

References 20 publications

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Epidemics in Ming and Qing China: Impacts of changes of climate and economic well-being

Decadal-scale variability of warm season temperature in Beijing over the past 2650 years

Simulated analysis of summer climate on centennial time scale in eastern China during the last millennium

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